Sea level much higher than assumed in most coastal hazard assessments
95 points by jacquesm 7 hours ago | 59 comments
pjmlp 4 hours ago
We just started another war with unforeseen consequences to the planet, while destroying all resources to feed the AI monster, forget about all those paper straws.
replymetalman 4 hours ago
Watch your warming oceans expand in real time here
replyhttps://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today
above shows what may be the earliest ever peak sea ice
and
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/contour/
and the one above is absolutly terrifying , or should be to wanabe hegemnons thinking that the naritive, is thiers.
sebmellen 2 hours ago
So we are more than 1 million square kilometers lower than our record minimum year of 2012. Holy shit.
replyhttps://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools/charctic-inter...
bvdw 4 hours ago
The first link contains a banner that perfectly illustrates the tragic moment we're in: "Due to non-renewed funding, several Sea Ice Today tools and services are now suspended or reduced."
replylazyasciiart 4 hours ago
Can you explain what background knowledge I need to be terrified looking at the second one?
replymetalman 3 hours ago
it is a tool that shows daily snap shots of the SST
to use it you need to have a good grasp on geography/oceanography, and then spen a bit of time each day looking at it, and cross corelating with things like hurricanes, to see the trace spiral of cooler water that a giant storm will imprint into the oceans surface, or this year, the very significant chanhes in the worlds major hot and cold currents, and size of the spill over from the south wester pacific into the atlantic.
replymeasurablefunc 4 hours ago
In almost every fictional story¹ dealing w/ near future outcomes every author just assumes that Miami & New York are under water.
replybikenaga 7 hours ago
[flagged]
replybuildsjets 6 hours ago
The only thing you ever post is AI summaries of articles. Why?
replySchiendelman 5 hours ago
I assume that's a bot that helps us not have to click on articles for basic information. Personally, I find it quite useful. I'd love to have that built into HN.
replysolid_fuel 2 hours ago
I think every browser has an AI summary feature now, if you find reading and engaging with information just too difficult and challenging.
reply
Darkly, a disastrous global nuclear war that sends us back in time 500 years would be the most effective and most probable way of achieving this.
The problem is the only solution to climate change is keeping oil in the ground. There are other things that can be done to make a zero emissions transition less painful, but oil (and all other fossil fuels) need to start staying in the ground.
During the Obama administration is when we started to see a dramatic increase in US oil production [0]. The US hegemony is oil powered and founded on the petro-dollar. There's no way US policy can be aligned with anything remotely resembling a path towards a sustainable energy environment.
0. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/leafhandler.ashx?n=pet&s=m...
Which effectively means that renewable deployment in the west might still be a good idea, but not because it supposedly slows or stops global warming.
..until about 2020, with COVID/russia-ukraine/Oct 7/trumps re-election following and burying it below tons of other news cycles.
In the near term, however, Americans will blame everything except man-made pollution for the fallout from climate change.
At the same time, we don't have China's industrial capacity or their stomach for massive state-driven subsidies. I don't see how you escape peak oil otherwise.
The vast majority of new electricity generation installed in the US over the last 15 years has been wind and solar. That naturally results in fossil fuels being fazed out when existing power plants age and thus need to be replaced. 70% of US electricity came from fossil fuels in 2010, that dropped to 60% by 2020. More significantly it mostly swapped to natural gas which emits far less CO2/KWh than coal.
We could go faster but the tail end of the curve represents a small fraction of the CO2 vs the peak. Even natural gas is facing severe pressure from ultra cheap battery backed solar. More importantly natural gas power plants don’t last nearly as long so will get fazed out much faster.
EV’s are also about more than tailpipe emissions, making and transporting gasoline is quite harmful before it ends up in a gas tank.
We absolutely have the capacity, it's just being given to already wealthy families to ensure their wealth is contained to themselves rather than the country.
At present, the bare economics of it, without any subsidies, put solar as the most cost-effective new power capacity to add.
Last year—2025, the first year of Trump's second term—something like 90% of all new generating capacity in the US was solar. Even with his active antipathy toward it.
There no longer needs to be a massive movement willing to pay more for energy just to get it decarbonized. All we need is for the fossil fuel industry and the people in its pay to get out of the way.
Not just more cost-effective for new power.
The operating expenses for a given coal plant are greater than the buildout cost for the equivalent solar+battery plant.
It no longer makes financial sense for coal plants to continue existing in almost all cases. This isn't some environmentalism thing, it's strictly hard math. Fossil energy is no longer viable without taxpayers keeping it on life support.
History is full of examples, but maybe not explanations, of the type of behavior coming out of the current administration in the US. They’re not particularly special, or extraordinary, by any measure. They’ve simply made the decision to hit the “defect” button over and over again like a teenage boy discovering porn for the first time.
And since the adults that preceded them were reasonable and responsible, they built up plenty of rules and norms, creating many opportunities to now hit “defect”.
The status quo's power rests on its institutions, stability, and the fact that it is the social norm - generally humans are tied to social norms and attack anything that violates them. The challenger, to succeed, needs to disrupt the institutions, stability, and norms, and one tactic is to just constantly attack them, regardless of the consequences, as a means to the end of taking down the status quo and gaining power.
There's not much history left. What we're seeing right now is people getting ready to win the end game of civilization. The oligarchs are well aware of the myriad existential threats to our civilization (and species) and are playing the game to make sure they're the last person alive living in comfort.
History will increasingly be told by powerful, oligarchical, modern warlords.
It's not to prevent it, or to mitigate its damages, it's for the people who disproportionately caused it, and have already benefitted from it, to finalize their control over the resources they want. Some of those resources are some of us.
Humans are not that good at planning longer than 6 months to 5 years out. The brain is legacy hardware, optimized for the Pleistocene epoch. Reward circuitry (Striatum) often overpowers logical simulation (Cortex).
A lot of Trump's seemingly odd obsessions like taking over Greenland and Canada are less odd (but still very unsettling) when you accept that the global power elite have already accepted that run-away climate change is inevitable and the only open questions are who is going to profit from it and how.
The US has Alaska, but if it wants more newly arable land in the future, the only options seem to be Greenland and Canada, the two places which Trump just so happens to be obsessed with annexing.
Just to really quickly call out these tired old straw-men... all of these "predicted disasters" are far further along today than they were predicted to be by this date by, for example, the IPCC in 1990[0]. Deniers keep acting as if it scientists have been "crying wolf" for decades when the truth is that the 99% of the scientists doing real work on anthropogenic global warming have always been extremely conservative and reality has outpaced their predictions all along.
[0] https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar1/wg2/
https://www.usgs.gov/news/national-news-release/glaciers-rap...
But prior to it happening it was just a long term prediction that had kept not happening for the longest time.
> Has the climate collapsed?
There's an awful lot of room between "business as usual" and "total collapse".
Must we wait until after bad things have happened to only then discuss what we might have done about them in hindsight? Surely proactively avoiding problems is better?