The Bromine Chokepoint: How Strife Could Halt Production of World’s Memory Chips
42 points by crescit_eundo 3 hours ago | 12 comments

arjie 2 hours ago
I have a sense of complacency regarding all these. There’s always The One Factory In North Carolina That Produces The Essential Ingredient and it turns out that it’s just the price optimal one and there is enough capacity around the world to substitute.

Everything from Peak Oil to today has the globalized market/trade machine meeting the needs continuously with only leaf nodes for products being the constraint. Almost all inputs have been commoditized.

reply
MontyCarloHall 47 minutes ago
>There’s always The One Factory In North Carolina That Produces The Essential Ingredient and it turns out that it’s just the price optimal one and there is enough capacity around the world to substitute.

If you're referring to Spruce Pine in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene [0, 1], the predictions that chipmaking would be severely disrupted turned out to not come true because the Spruce Pine mine sustained a lot less damage than initially feared and was made operational within a week or two [2], not because high-purity quartz is commoditized.

[0] https://www.npr.org/2024/09/30/nx-s1-5133462/hurricane-helen...

[1] https://www.aveva.com/en/our-industrial-life/type/article/hu...

[2] https://www.cbs17.com/news/north-carolina-news/spruce-pine-q...

reply
chromacity 2 hours ago
Ah, this week's iteration of "we're running out of sand". I'm sure one of these predictions will eventually come true, but we have articles that overstate the likelihood and consequences of running out of <some basic material> pretty much every month.

I'm not keeping track, but some of the things we ran out of include sand, helium, tellurium, tantalum, niobium, bees...

reply
csnover 2 minutes ago
The article isn’t arguing that if ICL facilities are disrupted, that’s it, no more bromine forever. It is saying that if these facilities are disrupted there will be an even bigger problem with DRAM supply than already exists because there is no excess supply, no good alternative, and no quick way to ramp up production.

This dismissive contrarian Pollyanna attitude might serve well to minimise your personal anxiety, but I would argue that it is pretty bad way to make decisions or manage risk.

This is not some article saying that the sky is falling without evidence. It is not even an article saying the sky is falling with evidence. It is an article that says that there is a significant risk, due to an entirely preventable man-made problem, where steps can be taken now to reduce the medium-term impact of the problem. And then it lists those steps. Why is this not OK to you?

reply
baq 2 hours ago
Nothing ever happens eh?
reply
ACCount37 20 minutes ago
Nothing Ever Happens Bias has served me pretty well on those dubious semiconductor supply chain claims.

The main reason being: materials are cheap - plant time is what's expensive.

First, raw materials are such a small fraction of chip costs that even if the market price of a given material spikes up two orders of magnitude briefly, the market can eat the spike. For many broadly used materials, this alone is "end of story" - the majority of consumers will balk at the price and exit the market long before semiconductors supply chains will. And second, between the costs of halting production and the low volumes of actual materials involved, supply buffers exist on sites. That plays against supply chain fragility.

It's one thing to have everything JITted within an inch of its life on a razor thin margins car plant. It's another matter entirely to have a "potential supply disruption" in semiconductor manufacturing that will, if all supply truly and fully stopped tomorrow, convert to actual stopped plants in 4 months unless something is done about it in the meanwhile. And that "unless something is done" bites hard when you have a lot of engineering capability underlined by general price insensitivity. As semiconductor industry does.

reply
chasil 37 minutes ago
Ukraine previously sold half the neon used in semiconductor manufacturing, between Mariupol and Odessa.

https://www.theregister.com/2022/03/11/ukraine_neon_supplies...

reply
mullingitover 22 minutes ago
This particular thing may or may not blow up in our faces, but as long as the US and Israel fail to take vast military power away from their corrupt despots it's only a matter of time before something seriously bad blows up.

Despots will keep pushing their limits until they get punched in the nose, and so far the only limits they've hit have been a few angry parades.

reply
chasil 5 minutes ago
Eisenhower's Iranian coup in 1953 set much of this in motion.

I really don't understand the motivation, as British Petroleum (BP) was not a direct U.S. interest.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9ta...

reply
dbspin 18 minutes ago
Boy do you need to look in a mirror.
reply
varispeed 16 minutes ago
Funny they will blow up the world, just so they don't face the reality of Epstein files and kompromats in the archives of Moscow.

Essentially cowards.

and the reckoning will come anyway.

reply
littlestymaar 29 minutes ago
The more efficient a system is (due to specialization and removal of redundancy), the more fragile it becomes.

That's why biological systems look so wasteful (chlorophyll reflecting the more abundant wavelength, etc.)

reply