GitHub's Fake Star Economy
85 points by Liriel 2 hours ago | 51 comments

ozgrakkurt 29 seconds ago
> Jordan Segall, Partner at Redpoint Ventures, published an analysis of 80 developer tool companies showing that the median GitHub star count at seed financing was 2,850 and at Series A was 4,980. He confirmed: "Many VCs write internal scraping programs to identify fast growing github projects for sourcing, and the most common metric they look toward is stars."

> Runa Capital publishes the ROSS (Runa Open Source Startup) Index quarterly, ranking the 20 fastest-growing open-source startups by GitHub star growth rate. Per TechCrunch, 68% of ROSS Index startups that attracted investment did so at seed stage, with $169 million raised across tracked rounds. GitHub itself, through its GitHub Fund partnership with M12 (Microsoft's VC arm), commits $10 million annually to invest in 8-10 open-source companies at pre-seed/seed stages based partly on platform traction.

This all smells like BS. If you are going to do an analysis you need to do some sound maths on amount of investment a project gets in relation to github starts.

All this says is stars are considered is some ways, which is very far from saying that you get the fake stars and then you have investment.

This smells like bait for hating on people that get investment

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dafi70 59 minutes ago
Honest question: how can VCs consider the 'star' system reliable? Users who add stars often stop following the project, so poorly maintained projects can have many stars but are effectively outdated. A better system, but certainly not the best, would be to look at how much "life" issues have, opening, closing (not automatic), and response times. My project has 200 stars, and I struggle like crazy to update regularly without simple version bumps.
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3form 50 minutes ago
The stars have fallen to the classic problem of becoming a goal and stopping being a good metric. This can apply to your measure just as well: issues can also be gamed to be opened, closed and responded to quickly, especially now with LLMs.
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sunrunner 39 minutes ago
Was it ever a good metric? A star from another account costs nothing and conveys nothing about the sincerity, knowledge, importance or cultural weight of the star giver. As a signal it's as weak as 'hitting that like button'.

If the number of stars are in the thousands, tens of thousands, or hundreds of thousands, that might correlate with a serious project. But that should be visible by real, costly activity such as issues, PRs, discussion and activity.

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noosphr 22 minutes ago
There was a time when total number of hyperlinks to a site was an amazing metric measuring its quality.
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3form 34 minutes ago
There isn't just "good metric" in vacuum - it was a good metric of exactly the popularity that you mentioned. But stars becoming an object of desire is what killed it for that purpose. Perhaps now they are a "good metric" of combined interest and investment in the project, but what they're measuring is just not useful anymore.
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sunrunner 28 minutes ago
Yeah, I'd agree with this. I always thought of a star indicating only that a person (or account, generally) had an active interest in another project, either through being directly related or just from curiosity. Which can sort of work as a proxy for interesting, important or active, but not accurately.
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einpoklum 25 minutes ago
A repository with zero stars has essentially no users. A repository with single-stars has a few users, but possibly most/all are personal acquiantances of the author, or members of the project.

It is the meaning of having dozens or hundreds of stars that is undermined by the practice described at the linked post.

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test1235 46 minutes ago
"When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law

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HighlandSpring 53 minutes ago
I wonder if there's a more graph oriented score that could work well here - something pagerank ish so that a repo scores better if it has issues reported by users who themselves have a good score. So it's at least a little resilient to crude manipulation attempts
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3form 45 minutes ago
It would be more resilient indeed, I think. Definitely needs a way to figure out which users should have a good score, though - otherwise it's just shifting the problem somewhat. Perhaps it could be done with a reputation type of approach, where the initial reputation would be driven by a pool of "trusted" open source contributors from some major projects.

That said, I believe the core problem is that GitHub belongs to Microsoft, and so it will still go more towards operating like a social network than not - i.e. engagement matters. It will still take a good will to get rid of Social Network Disease at scale.

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foresterre 42 minutes ago
With the advent of AI, these "life" events are probably even simpler to fake than AI though, and unlike the faking of stars not against the ToS.
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csomar 11 minutes ago
Because VCs love quantifiable metrics regardless of how reliable they actually are. They raise money from outside investors and are under pressure to deploy it. The metrics give them something concrete to justify their thesis and move on with their life.
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askl 54 minutes ago
Stars are a simple metric even someone like a VC investor can understand. Your "better system" sounds far too complicated and time consuming.
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logicallee 32 minutes ago
>Honest question: how can VCs consider the 'star' system reliable?

Founders need the ability to get traction, so if a VC gets a pitch and the project's repo has 0 stars, that's a strong signal that this specific team is just not able to put themselves out there, or that what they're making doesn't resonate with anyone.

When I mentioned that a small feature I shared got 3k views when I just mentioned it on Reddit, then investors' ears perked right up and I bet you're thinking "I wonder what that is, I'd like to see that!" People like to see things that are popular.

By the way, congrats on 200 stars on your project, I think that is definitely a solid indicator of interest and quality, and I doubt investors would ignore it.

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faangguyindia 48 minutes ago
because VC don't care about anything being legitimate, if it can fool VCs it can also fool market participants, then VC can profit off of it.

one VC told me, you'll get more funding and upvotes if u don't put "india" in your username.

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Se_ba 42 minutes ago
This is a good idea, but from my experience most VCs (I’m not talking about the big leagues) aren’t technical, they tend to repeat buzzwords, so they don’t really understand how star systems works.
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aledevv 24 minutes ago
> VCs explicitly use stars as sourcing signals

In my opinion, nothing could be more wrong. GitHub's own ratings are easily manipulated and measure not necessarily the quality of the project itself, but rather its Popularity. The problem is that popularity is rarely directly proportional to the quality of the project itself.

I'm building a product and I'm seeing what important is the distribution and comunication instead of the development it self.

Unfortunately, a project's popularity is often directly proportional to the communication "built" around it and inversely proportional to its actual quality. This isn't always the case, but it often is.

Moreover, adopting effective and objective project evaluation tools is quite expensive for VCs.

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ozgrakkurt 7 minutes ago
Vast majority of mid level experienced people take stars very seriously and they won't use anything under 100 stars.

I'm not supporting this view but it is what it is unfortunately.

VCs that invest based on stars do know something I guess or they are just bad investors.

IMO using projects based on start count is terrible engineering practice.

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williamdclt 11 minutes ago
Well, pretty sure that VCs are more interested in popularity than in quality so maybe it's not such a bad metric for them.
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aledevv 4 minutes ago
Yes, you're right, but popularity becomes fleeting without real quality behind the projects.

Hype helps raise funds, of course, and sells, of course.

But it doesn't necessarily lead to long-term sustainability of investments.

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apples_oranges 43 minutes ago
I look at the starts when choosing dependencies, it's a first filter for sure. Good reminder that everything gets gamed given the incentives.
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msdz 32 minutes ago
> I look at the starts when choosing dependencies, it's a first filter for sure.

Unfortunately I still look at them, too, out of habit: The project or repo's star count _was_ a first filter in the past, and we must keep in mind it no longer is.

> Good reminder that everything gets gamed given the incentives.

Also known as Goodhart's law [1]: "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure".

Essentially, VCs screwed this one up for the rest of us, I think?

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goodhart%27s_law

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moffkalast 39 minutes ago
Average case of "once a measure becomes a target".
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lkm0 43 minutes ago
We're this close to rediscovering pagerank
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socketcluster 8 minutes ago
My project https://github.com/socketCluster/socketcluster has been accumulating stars slowly but steadily over about 13 years. Now it has over 6k stars but it doesn't seem to mean much nowadays as a metric. It sucks having put in the effort and seeing it get lost in a sea of scams and seeing people doubting my project's own authenticity.

It does feel like everything is a scam nowadays though. All the numbers seem fake; whether it's number of users, number of likes, number of stars, amount of money, number of re-tweets, number of shares issued, market cap... Maybe it's time we focus on qualitative metrics instead?

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spocchio 15 minutes ago
I think the reason is that investors are not IT experts and don't know better metrics to evaluate.

I guess it's like fake followers on other social media platforms.

To me, it just reflects a behaviour that is typical of humans: in many situations, we make decisions in fields we don't understand, so we evaluate things poorly.

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elashri 28 minutes ago
I usually use stars as a bookmark list to visit later (which I rarely do). I probably would need to stop doing that and use my self-hosted "Karkeep" instance for github projects as well.
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QuantumNomad_ 23 minutes ago
Never heard of it before.

https://github.com/karakeep-app/karakeep

Sounds useful.

I’ll star it and check it out later ;)

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Lapel2742 55 minutes ago
I do not look at the stars. I look at the list of contributors, their activities and the bug reports / issues.
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est 51 minutes ago
> I look at the list of contributors

Specifically if those avatars are cute animie girls.

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tomaytotomato 29 minutes ago
> Specifically if those avatars are cute anime girls.

I know you are half joking/not joking, but this is definitely a golden signal.

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GaryBluto 4 minutes ago
Positive or negative to you? Whenever I see more than one anime-adjacent profile picture I duck out.
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mrweasel 21 minutes ago
Yeah, I didn't think anyone would place any actual value on the stars. It almost doesn't need to be a feature, because what is it suppose to do exactly?
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nottorp 23 minutes ago
Why is zero public repos a criteria?

I paid github for years to keep my repos private...

But then I don't participate in the stars "economy" anyway, I don't star and I don't count stars, so I'm probably irrellevant for this study.

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Topfi 19 minutes ago
Am very much the same, took a bunch private two years ago for multitude of reasons. I can, however, see why no public repos could be a partial indicator and of concern, in conjunction with sudden star growth, simply because it is hard for a person with no prior project to suddenly and publicly strike gold. Even on Youtube it is a rare treat to stumble across a well made video by a small channel and without algos to surface repos on Github in the same way, any viral success from a previously inactive account should be treated with some suspicion.
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anant-singhal 31 minutes ago
Seen this happen first-hand with mid-to-large open source projects that sometimes "sponsor" hackathons, literally setting a task to "star the repo" to be eligible.

It’s supposed to get people to actually try your product. If they like it, they star it. Simple.

At that point, forcing the action just inflates numbers and strips them of any meaning.

Gaming stars to set it as a positive signal for the product to showcase is just SHIT.

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AKSF_Ackermann 41 minutes ago
So, if star to fork ratio is the new signal, time to make an extra fake star tier, where the bot forks the repo, generates a commit with the cheapest LLM available and pushes that to gh, right?
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talsania 2 hours ago
Seen this firsthand, repos with hundreds of stars and zero meaningful commits or issues. In hardware/RTL projects it's less prominent.
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Topfi 56 minutes ago
I don't know what is more, for lack of a better word, pathetic, buying stars/upvotes/platform equivalent or thinking of oneself as a serious investor and using something like that as a metric guiding your decision making process.

I'd give a lot of credit to Microsoft and the Github team if they went on a major ban/star removal wave of affected repos, akin to how Valve occasionally does a major sweep across CSGO2 banning verified cheaters.

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luke5441 37 minutes ago
The problem is that if this is the game now, you need to play it. I'm trying to get a new open source project off the ground and now I wonder if I need to buy fake stars. Or buy the cheapest kind of fake stars for my competitors so they get deleted.

For Microsoft this is another kind of sunk cost, so idk how much incentive they have to fix this situation.

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Topfi 25 minutes ago
The issue with that is, it's a game that never ends. Now you need to inflate your npm/brew/dnf installs, then your website traffic to not make it to obvious, etc.

I am not successful at all with my current projects (admittedly am not trying to be nowadays), so feel free to dismiss this advice that predates a time before LLM driven development, but in the past, I have had decent success in forums interacting with those with a specific problem my project did address. Less in stars, more in actual exchange of helpful contributions.

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superdisk 34 minutes ago
An open source project really shouldn't be something you need to "get off the ground." If it provides value then people will naturally use it.
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luke5441 22 minutes ago
How do people know it exists to solve their problem? Even before LLMs it was hard to get through VC funded marketing by (commercial) competitors.

My first Open Source project easily got off the ground just by being listed in SourceForge.

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mariusor 26 minutes ago
Haha, have you tried that? I think in this day and age marketing is much needed activity even for open-source projects providing quality solutions to problems.
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Miraltar 44 minutes ago
Citing Valve as a model for handling cheating is not what I'd have reached for.
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Topfi 32 minutes ago
Honest question, which companies handle the process better given it is a trade-off? Yes, VAC is not as iron-clad as kernel level solutions can be, but the latter is overly invasive for many users. I'd argue neither is the objectively right or better approach here and Valves approach of longer term data collection and working on ML solutions that have the potential to catch even those cheating methods currently able to bypass kernel level anti-cheat is a good step.

On Github stars, I'd argue they are the most suitable comparison, as all the funny business regarding stars should be, if at all, detectable by Github directly and ideally, bans would have the biggest deterrent effect, if they happened in larger waves, allowing the community to see who did engage in fraudulent behaviour.

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Oras 22 minutes ago
Would be nice to see the ratio of OpenClaw stars
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bjourne 8 minutes ago
> The CMU researchers recommended GitHub adopt a weighted popularity metric based on network centrality rather than raw star counts. A change that would structurally undermine the fake star economy. GitHub has not implemented it.

> As one commenter put it: "You can fake a star count, but you can't fake a bug fix that saves someone's weekend."

I'm curious what the research says here---can you actually structurally undermine the gamification of social influence scores? And I'm pretty sure fake bugfixes are almost trivial to generate by LLMs.

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nryoo 25 minutes ago
The real metric is: does it solve my problem, and is the maintainer still responding to issues? Everything else is just noise.
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m00dy 14 minutes ago
same here on HN as well
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