Why Almost Everyone Loses–Except a Few Sharks–On Prediction Markets
14 points by JumpCrisscross 2 hours ago | 7 comments
dist-epoch 15 minutes ago
> On Kalshi, too, losers vastly outnumber winners. Spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana said there are 2.9 unprofitable users for each profitable one based on data from the past month
replySo 25% of users are profitable? That's vastly more than on financial sites - stocks/futures/forex/options trading where only 5% of bettors are profitable.
boh 3 minutes ago
All those other markets are vastly bigger in scale and trade in trillions on a daily basis so it's in irrelevant comparison. Also the expectation is that the majority of that 25% are insiders. So you're comparing catching fish in a barrel where 25% of the participants hooked the fish prior to you getting a turn vs fishing in the open ocean (so 5% is pretty good with additional voting rights/tax benefits).
replyhiddencost 9 minutes ago
Uhm, I'd like to introduce you to our Lord and Savior index funds. Simply buy vtsax and forget for 30 years.
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