AI has a multiplying effect on existing technical skills
99 points by moebrowne 3 hours ago | 117 comments

Waterluvian 2 hours ago
I had an Iron Man moment last week where I was “vibe coding” a UI design with component tests live on the other screen. Iterating by asking it to move things, reduce emphasis of an element, exploring layout options, etc. The loop was near realtime and felt amazing.

The code it generated was awful. The kind of garbage that people who don’t know any better would ship: it looked right and it worked. But it was instantly a maintenance dead end. But I had an effortless time converging on a design that I wouldn’t have been able to do on my own (I’m not a designer). And then I had a reference design and I manually implemented it with better code (the part I am good at).

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akersten 2 hours ago
> The code it generated was awful. The kind of garbage that people who don’t know any better would ship: it looked right and it worked. But it was instantly a maintenance dead end.

In the Tailwind thread the other day I was explicitly told that the intended experience of many frameworks is "write-only code" so maybe this is just the way of the future that we have to learn to embrace. Don't worry how it's all hooked up, if it works it works and if it stops working tell the AI to fix it.

It's kind of liberating I guess. I'm not sure if I've reached AI nirvana on accepting this yet, but I do think that moment is close.

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simmerup 2 hours ago
The problem is it’s impossibly hard to test all the edge cases

Which is probably why so many random buttons in microsoft/apple/spotify just stop working once you get off the beaten path or load the app in some state which is slightly off base

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marcosdumay 31 minutes ago
The problem is worse than that.

The number of edge cases in a software is not fixed at all. One of the largest markers of competence in software development is being able to keep them at minimum, and LLMs tend to make that number higher than humanely possible.

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disgruntledphd2 2 hours ago
Yeah, the biggest thing I've noticed from LLMs is that large tech products now have even more bugs. Turns out the humans weren't so bad after all...
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louiereederson 58 minutes ago
I'm wondering if companies are 'diverting' engineering resources from core products to AI products with the view that the former are legacy. Kind of two sides of the same coin though.
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michaelcampbell 2 hours ago
> Turns out the humans weren't so bad after all...

The people pushing AI _over_ humans never thought they were. They just don't care about 'good' or 'bad', only 'time-to-market'. A bad app making money is better than a good one that isn't deployed yet. And who cares about anything past the end of the quarter? That's the next guy's problem.

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giancarlostoro 2 hours ago
Easy, have Claude review the code, tell it to be critical and that it needs to be easier to understand, follow Clean Code, SOLID principles and best practices. Lie to it, say you got this from a Junior developer, or "review it as if you were a Staff Level Engineer reviewing Junior code" the models can write better code, just nobody tells them to.
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HappySweeney 56 minutes ago
Code review is the main thing I use LLMs for. I have found it to be remarkably candid when you tell it the code came from another LLM (even name it). I was running Kimi K2.6 Q4 locally, seeing if it could SIMD a bit-matrix transpose function, and it was slow enough that I would paste its thinking into Gemini every few minutes. Gemini was savage.
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datsci_est_2015 15 minutes ago
> Gemini was savage.

Humorously, this could be the result of LLMs vacuuming up all the sentiment on the web that the code that LLMs produce is trash-tier.

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marcosdumay 36 minutes ago
Lol, the only thing worse than a junior developer following Clean Code and SOLID has to be an LLM messing with code so it looks like it follows.
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giancarlostoro 16 minutes ago
Clean Code has its really "meh" areas, but the core idea and spirit of it is sound, heck Python's best guide is PEP-8 if you follow that, it forces you to write much better Python code.

In terms of "junior dev following" it would be the model trying to think and write it as a Senior or Staff Level engineer would.

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kenjackson 52 minutes ago
This is it. I've had a similar experience in just playing around I asked it to clean up some code it wrote to increase maintainability and readability by humans. After a few iterations it had generated quite solid code. It also broke the code a couple of times along the way. But it does get me thinking that these pipelines with agents doing specific tasks makes a lot of sense. One to design and architect, one to implement, one to clean, one to review, one to test (actually there's probably a bunch of different agents for testing -- testing perf/power, that it matches the requirements/spec, matches the design, is readable/maintainable, etc...).
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giancarlostoro 47 minutes ago
I built GuardRails after some frustrations with Beads which I love, and this whole exchange made me realize, because I have "gates" after tasks, I could add a "Review the code" type of gate, and probably get insanely better output, I already get reasonably good output because I spec out the requirements beforehand, that's the other thing, if you can tell the LLM HOW to build before it does, you will have better output.
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enraged_camel 43 minutes ago
Even better, if you have access to multiple models, tell it you got the code from another AI agent.

I did an experiment on this a few weekends ago and Codex for example was a lot more adversarial and thorough in its review when given Claude-authored code compared to when given the same code with "I wrote this, can you review it?"

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giancarlostoro 41 minutes ago
If it's within its context window, it will know you're lying, so either compact or start a new chat (don't do this on Claude, it dings your usage, always has).
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theptip 12 minutes ago
We collectively have to re-learn what operations are expensive and what are cheap.

Prototypes are practically free now. You can ask the AI try each architectural or stylistic option and just see which code you like better.

To your point, another interesting note is that rewriting and rearchitecting are also very good.

One pattern I like is to vibe code a set of solutions, pick the approach, then backfill tests and do major refactors to make it maintainable.

Here the skill is knowing what good architecture looks like, and knowing how to prompt and validate (eg what level of tests will speed up the feedback cycle or enable me to make the LLM’s changes legible).

To be fair the “ready, fire, aim” approach of rapid prototyping has been known for a long time, but you need to be quite quick at coding in old world for it to work well IMO.

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eithed 55 minutes ago
That's the model I've arrived to as well:

- first I've created a skill how the architecture of the system should look like

- I'll tell the LLM to follow the guidelines; it will not do that 100%, but it will be good enough

- I'll go through what it produced, align to the template; if I like something (either I've not thought about the problem in that way, or simply forgot) I add that to the skill template

- rinse and repeat

This is not only for architecture of the system, but also when (and how to) write backend, frontend, e2e tests, docs. I know what I want to achieve = I know how the code should be organized and how it should work, I know how tests should be written. LLMs allow me to eliminate the tediousness of following the same template every time. Without these guardrails it switches patterns so often, creating unmaintainable crap

Bear in mind - the output requires constant supervision = LLM will touch something I told it not to touch, or not follow what I told it to do. The amount of the output can also sometimes be overwhelming (so, peer review is still needed), but at this point I can iterate over what LLM produces with it, with another LLM, then give to a human if it together makes sense

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jvanderbot 2 hours ago
I wonder how much of this is momentum.

At the moment, we understand the basic tech, could reasonably DIY, but choose not to knowing full well there's a mess of understandable code somewhere we could go clean up but dont want to. We accept fast iterations because we know roughly the shape of how it "should be" and can guide an automated framework towards that. This is especially true on our own projects or something we built originally! Stark/Iron man knew/moved, the suit assisted by adding momentum.

We're riding our "knowledge momentum".

If companies can hold out long enough, that knowledge completely fades, and the tool is all you have. At that point, they are locked in. Then it's not Iron man, it's an Iron lung (couldn't resist!)

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Waterluvian 52 minutes ago
Yeah that’s my main concern. It feels so so easy to be lazy and do a bad job now. And then my skills weaken and what makes me valuable fades.

I love the Iron lung reference. Perfect.

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gbear0 38 minutes ago
Why was it a maintenance dead end? It sounds like you were able to iteratively work on it in its current state, but are you going to be the one maintaining the code?

I keep asking myself the same questions, and the conclusion I keep coming to is the clean modeled structure we want to see is for humans to maintain and extend, but the AI doesn't need this.

There's definitely an efficiency angle here where it's faster for AI to go from a clean modeled solution to the desired solution because it's likely been trained on cleaner code. Is this really going to matter though?

The best argument I can come up with is the clean modeled solution is better for existing development tools because it's less likely to get confused by the patch work of vibes throughout the code; but this feels like it ultimately becomes an efficiency concern as well.

This just might be the new reality, and we need to stop looking behind the curtain and accept what the wizard presents us.

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ttd 29 minutes ago
> the clean modeled structure we want to see is for humans to maintain and extend, but the AI doesn't need this.

This does not match my experience. I do a lot of AI-assisted coding at this point, and what I've seen is that when the AI is asked to extend or modify existing code, it does a much better job on clean, well-structured and well-abstracted code.

I think the reason is simple, and tracks for humans as well: well-structured code is simply easier to understand and reason about, and takes a smaller amount of working-set memory. Even as LLMs get better with coding, I expect that they would converge on the same conclusion, namely that good structure + good abstractions make for code that is more efficient to work with.

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empath75 26 minutes ago
Yeah I have had claude take over multiple internal (human written) projects that were in a dire state and spent a week just completely refactoring them and adding exhaustive tests before doing any new features. It's worth starting from a clean slate.
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K0balt 16 minutes ago
I keep hearing the assertion that you can’t make high quality, maintainable code with LLMs. The last two years using AI have shown me exactly the opposite.

I think it’s all about the structure you use to work in and how you use the model. We are shipping better, more human friendly code, with less bugs, then we ever did before and doing it at 1/10 the cost before LLMs.

But we are definitely not vibe coding, and the key seems to be devs with years of experience managing teams, managing the LLM instead. Basically you create the same kind of formal specifications, conventions, and documentation that you would develop for a project with two or three teams, then use that to keep the project on the rails recursively looping back through the docs as you go along. I’ve only had to back out of a couple of issues over the last year, and even though that cost a couple of hours, it was still extremely cheap.

Meanwhile we are shipping at 4x speed with 1/4 the labor, and the code is better than it was because the “overhead” of writing maintainable, self documented code has inverted into the secret ingredient to shipping bug free code at unprecedented speed.

If you just explain the standards to which you want the code written, use a strict style guide, have a separate process that ensures test coverage (not in the same context) you can get example quality code all the way through. Turns out that’s also in the training data.

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ahnick 17 minutes ago
The reason why you will never get software engineers (in companies) to accept the man behind the curtain is liability. If a human software engineer is still responsible for what happens when the AI developed code has a catastrophic bug or security vulnerability, then the only way for the human to know if there is a problem is to be able to read through the code or run it through some <insert advanced formal verification tool here> that guarantees zero issues.

I think we eventually end up at the tool approach via vendors providing the tools to other companies, but it still feels like there's a long road ahead to get there.

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njovin 26 minutes ago
Many of us recognize that the days of nearly-free tokens is quickly drawing to a close, and at some point humans may very well have to dig their keyboards out of cold storage and return once again to the code mines.
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lambda 27 minutes ago
> but the AI doesn't need this

That's not true. The LLM performance will degrade as the codebase gets messier as well. You get to a point where every fix breaks something else and you can't really make forward progress.

Yes, you might be able to get a bit further with a messy codebase just because the LLM won't complain and will just grind through fixing things, but eventually it will just start disabling failing tests instead of actually fixing things.

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glhaynes 26 minutes ago
Sometimes I think the main value in AI-maintained code being “high quality” is when the structure can enforce invariants. If invalid states aren’t representable, then the AI can’t easily add bugs in the future.

Of course that just leads to: what’s the best way to achieve that goal? Through elegant code or adding lots of tests? Which is a debate from long before LLMs existed.

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jplusequalt 25 minutes ago
>This just might be the new reality, and we need to stop looking behind the curtain and accept what the wizard presents us.

This is how societies become shittier. People who are ostensibly responsible for doing their jobs not giving a damn about quality.

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otabdeveloper4 31 minutes ago
> Why was it a maintenance dead end?

LLMs have a limit to how deep they can understand and refactor architectural issues.

That limit is far, far lower than a human's.

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EasyMark 17 minutes ago
Did you try to have it clean up the code and refactor? I find while the code is usually low to mid tier that it’s a lot better than the first pass. I of course back up the working version lol. Usually I can coax something better out of it
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dylan604 2 hours ago
> But I had an effortless time converging on a design that I wouldn’t have been able to do on my own (I’m not a designer).

I'm not a designer either, but I've been around designers long enough to recognize when something is bad but just not know what is needed to make it better/good. I've taken time to find sites that are designed well and then recreated them by hand coding the html/css to the point that I consider myself pretty decent at css now. I don't need libraries or frameworks. My css/html is so much lighter than what's found in those frameworks as well. I still would not call myself a designer, but pages look like they were designed by a mediocre designer rather than an engineer :shrug:

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the__alchemist 2 hours ago
Tangent: I never learned how to make the sorts of websites people find "professional" or "pretty" I could make functional and easy-to-use webapps, but not something people would think looks good or like something they would want to use. LLMs crushed this, without performance overhead; can still be HTML/CSS/targetted JS.
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snarf21 2 hours ago
I feel the same but the question I struggle most with is this: "Does it matter when the people who are going to come along and maintain this are just going to use AI to fix or adjust this maintenance nightmare?"
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Waterluvian 2 hours ago
At that point the code becomes a compile target, and then you need a new source of truth.

Which I think is perfectly worthy of exploration. Some people want to check in the prompts. Or even better, check in a plan.md or evenest betterest: some set of very well-defined specifications.

I'm not sure what the answer will be. Probably some mix of things. But today it is absolutely imperative that the code I write for the case I wrote it in is good quality and can be maintained by more than just me.

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ff317 34 minutes ago
When we want to maintain a reliable, stable "product" in traditional software development (a binary executable artifact that ships out to users, or the binary engine of some SaaS the company sells to users), we don't just check in (to the source of truth repo) the actual application-layer source code. We also check in build instructions (think autoconf/cmake/etc) and have some concept of compiler compatibilities / versions, build environments, and papering over their runtime differences. And then our official executable output is not just defined by "Tag v1.23.45 of the application source code repo" - it's additionally defined by the build environment (including, critically, the compiler version, among many others).

It's tempting to move out a layer and try making prompts and plan.md the "source code", and then the generated actual-source-code becomes just another ephemeral form of "intermediate representation" in the toolchain while building the final executable product. But then how are you versioning the toolchain and maintaining any reasonable sense of "stability" (in terms of features/bugs/etc) in the final output?

Example: last week, someone ran our "LLM inputs" source code through AgentCo SuperModel-7-39b, and produced a product output that users loved and it seemed to work well. Next week, management asks for a new feature. The "developer" adds the new feature to the prompting with a few trial iterations, but the resulting new product now has 339 new subtle bugs in areas that were working fine in last week's build owing the fact that, in the meantime, AgentCo has tweaked some weights in SuperModel-7-39b under the hood because of some concern about CSAM results or whatever and this had subtle unrelated effects. Or better yet: next month, management has learned that OtherCo MegaModel-42.7c seems to be the new hotness and tells everyone to switch models. Re-building from our "source" with the new model fixes 72 known bugs filed by users, fixes another 337 bugs nobody had even noticed yet, and causes 111 new bugs to be created that are yet-unknown.

If you treat the output source code as a write-only messy artifact, and you don't have stable, repeatable models, and don't treat model updates/changes as carefully as switching compiler vendors and build environments, this kind of methodology can only lead to chaos.

And don't even get me started on the parallel excuses of "Your specifications should be more-perfect" (perfection is impossible), or "An expansive testsuite should catch and correct all new bugs" (also impossible. testing is only as good as the imperfect specification, and then layers in its own finite capabilities to boot).

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user34283 2 hours ago
I don't see the benefit of checking in either prompts or specs.

I never tried spec driven development for myself, but if I review other's MRs I am typically exhausted after the first 10 lines.

And there are hundreds of lines, nearly always with major inaccuracies.

For myself I always found the plan mode to work well. Once the implementation is done, the code is the source of truth. If it works, it works.

When I want to add more functionality or change it, I just tell the agent what I want changed.

I doubt walls of semi-accurate existing specs are going to be beneficial there, but maybe my work differs from yours.

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gbear0 24 minutes ago
Those checked-in specs become the requirements for the system. So the next time you ask the AI to make a fix, it can use those specs as part of the solution and not break another requirement. Basically the code underneath keeps getting rewritten over and over, but that doesn't matter as long as it hits the required specs.
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macintux 43 minutes ago
I value traceability, and I value understanding the "why" of the code. For me, the prompts are useful for both.
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mehagar 2 hours ago
Same. Messy code makes it harder for us to understand and thus maintain the code (which is why people often refer to code as a liability), but is that the case for AI tools as well? If not, it seems like clean code may not matter as much anymore.
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n_e 2 hours ago
The problem with crappy frontend code is not only the maintenance. It's that stuff such as responsive design, accessibility or cross-browser compatibility that work nearly for free with elegant code won't work at all.
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flyinglizard 2 hours ago
The problem is that technical debt is compounding. Bad LLM architectural and implementation decisions just blend in to the background and you build layer upon layer of a mess. At some point it becomes difficult and expensive (token wise) to maintain this code, even for an agent.

I mitigate this by few things: 1. Checkpoints every few days to thoroughly review and flag issues. Asking the LLM to impersonate (Linus Torvalds is my favorite) yields different results. 2. Frequent refactors. LLMs don't get discouraged from throwing things out like humans do. So I ask for a refactor when enough stuff accumulates. 3. Use verbose, typed languages. C# on the backend, TypeScript on the frontend.

Does it produce quality code? Locally yes, architecturally I don't know - it works so far, I guess. Anyway, my alternative is not to make this software I'm writing better but not making it at all for the lack of time, so even if it's subpar it still brings business value.

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worldsayshi 2 hours ago
> The code it generated was awful.

I suppose you could solve that in two ways. Manually rewrite it as you did. Or formalize an architecture and let the AI rewrite it with that in mind. I suspect that either works.

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HikeThe46 56 minutes ago
If you are just blindly vibe coding without any parameters, guardrails, architecture, or broad guidance; you're going to have a mess of slop.

the power comes from creating the machine you can steer. Treat AI like an over eager college intern who you need to hand hold, but do tasks.

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wiseowise 40 minutes ago
> I had an Iron Man moment

Iron Man created Jarvis whose capabilities are way beyond any models in the near future. So it wasn’t an Iron Man moment.

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etiam 16 minutes ago
He was presumably also not constructing a powered exoskeleton of from fictional materials or a physically implausible power source, but since you obviously caught the reference, how about some benevolent interpretation instead, for a decent shorthand about working smoothly with AI assistance.

(And on a personal note, I'm glad we don't have a publicly released Jarvis before we get our act together about the use.)

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rspoerri 4 minutes ago
I am working on a project since 10 months that is solely written by ai. The second iteration of the code is even coded in a language that i can really write in (rust), it uses advanced and very complex structures (crdt, plugins, parallel threaded webviews). None of the advanced features were an idea of the llm's, but a vision i had in my mind or requirements that came up when encountered with problems.

The software is a tool specifically designed around my requirements of managing lectures that need to be prepared, managed, have presentations, grading etc. I wanted one big space where i can quickly access all related data in a workspace, fold and unfold important aspects while also editing and moving contents across multiple days/lectures.

The first version is a vscode plugin, which i now use since about 4 months without or with minor modifications to manage my lectures and private data. The second version is a standalone application which improves on the ideas of the first version and goes a few steps further.

AI can make you something that looks like its running quickly. But when you try to finish it takes way longer then you'd think. You need to specify every little detail. You need to make its KISS and DRY etc. You let it analyze the application structure and simplify and cleanup nearly the same amount of times as you add features. While fixing bugs you might need to run the same thing multiple times and revert any unrequired changes. You need to think about good level of debug logs and ways that the program can help you find errors and report them quickly.

I hope my project will be ready in about 2 to 3 months. The current version is according to a quick analysis over 850 files with 250'000 lines of code.

I spent about 2000$ on ai subscriptions in that time. 200$ claude for a while down to 100$ a month now. 20$ to openai which is very important for architecture and reviews. 20$ on tests with other ai's, but i rarely use them in the works. I also spent 1500$ on 2 * 3090's to hopefully have a local ai agent in the future.

I spend about 2 to 4 hours each day (including weekends) to check that app and write prompts.

I would never have been able to create such a large and complex project next to my other tasks and i am very confident that the final product will be good enough for productive work.

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giancarlostoro 2 minutes ago
> None of the advanced features were an idea of the llm's, but a vision i had in my mind or requirements that came up when encountered with problems.

This is the correct way to code with AI. If you don't understand the code, we're not yet in a point where the model can do it all, well it can, but where you can confidently move forward knowing its been thoroughly built and reviewed by a model up to par. Some day maybe, but not currently.

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simonw 10 minutes ago
The more time I spend accelerating my work with AI tools the more I realize how incredibly hard the craft of shipping useful software actually is.

Sure, Claude Code and Codex can write (most of) the code for me - but the amount of technical knowledge I need to decide what and how to build remains enormous.

As an example: I'm working on a system right now that works like Claude Artifacts, allowing custom HTML+JS apps to safely run in an iframe sandbox inside a larger application.

Just understanding why that's a useful thing that can be built requires deep knowledge of sandboxing, security threats, browser security models, and half a dozen different platform features that have been evolving over a couple of decades.

A vibe coded without that technical understanding would have zero chance of prompting such a thing into existence, no matter how much guidance the LLMs gave them.

It really saddens me to see some developers talk about literally quitting their careers over AI, right when the benefits of existing deep technical experience have never been more valuable.

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reconnecting 2 hours ago
> I think AI tools are more like Iron Man's suit.

There's an interesting repository with 63600 stars on GitHub (1). The developer of the repository is No 1 at the GitHub's trending contributors list (2). However, it seems like the application isn't what it's described to be (3), and the developers, on their end, are unable to clearly answer whether this is real or not, as it's just messy LLM output.

Proof that the suit alone doesn't make anyone Iron Man.

1. https://github.com/ruvnet/RuView

2. https://github.com/trending/developers?since=weekly

3. https://github.com/deletexiumu/wifi-densepose

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tambourine_man 41 minutes ago
> After a thorough independent code audit with cross-verification from three AI systems (Claude, Codex/GPT-5.2, Gemini), we confirm that this project is a non-functional facade.

So, a nonfunctional project is created by AI and AI is used to attests its nonfunctionality.

What a brave new world.

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reconnecting 28 minutes ago
It seems like a perfect ouroboros illustration for the current world.

AI creates a delusional product, people don't trust their own opinion regarding it and follow it, another AI is needed to prove that the product is unreal.

In the loop.

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pelasaco 2 hours ago
the whole thing is creepy. The ruvnet, has multiple projects.. its just AI. A lot of AI. It floods GH infra.. Kind of easy to understand why GH struggles.
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reconnecting 2 hours ago
On the other hand, there are 8,400 forks, and it looks very real, so developers seem to have confidence in it.
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chrisweekly 48 minutes ago
The forks are as meaningful as the stars.
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xnx 2 hours ago
An "elephant in the room" is a big topic that no one is talking about. Everyone is talking about AI.

Better headline: "Why AI Multiplies Developer Skills Rather Than Replacing Them"

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travisgriggs 15 minutes ago
What is unclear to me is how less skilled people gain useful experience, when using these amplifying tools. I’ve been at this for 35 years; I like to think that sometimes i get some pretty amazing results.

I work with two pretty green developers. The rate that they can make a mess is now phenomenal. And the sense of confidence the tools give them with early successes, means any experience I might have to offer means less now. Which is ok, I’m not going to be that “my experience has to be useful to you so I still fell relevant” old guy. But I do find myself curious how “lessons are learned” that lead to greater and greater tool exploitation in this brave new world.

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furyofantares 51 minutes ago
> So, on the one hand, I’m seeing the most talented developers I know amplify what they can do with AI, and on the other, I’m seeing people with less domain knowledge struggle to get past the “MVP” stage.

Those are people who weren't making it to the MVP stage before LLMs.

There is no doubt that highly technical people are getting A LOT more out of LLMs than people without dev experience, in an absolute sense. I think it's less clear in a relative sense.

A question I also ask myself a lot: What are the skills I'm leveraging, exactly, as a highly experienced developer that's now doing a lot of vibe coding?

1) I'm choosing good technology for the task, and thinking about what LLM-agents are good at and choosing technology that they can work well with.

2) I'm choosing good workflows for the LLM-agent, starting a new context at the right time, having it test things, making sure it has logging that it can inspect, making sure it can operate the application in a way that it can debug and inspect it.

3) I'm thinking about the code even though I'm not looking at it, I'm telling it how I want things implemented, I'm telling it how to debug things.

I think these are all hard things for non-developers to do, but I also think non-developers will be able to replicate a large chunk of #1 and #2 relatively quickly. I only have to figure out that it's valuable to tell the LLM-agent to use playwright when working on web page visuals once, and then I can tell you to do that too. Or the coding agents will come with that knowledge built-in (to the model or as a builtin skill or whatever). Knowledge around this will accumulate and become easier for non-developers to access, and in many cases be builtin to the models or harnesses.

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voidUpdate 2 hours ago
> "I think AI tools are more like Iron Man’s suit. It can do incredible things, but not on its own."

Someone needs to watch iron man 3...

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acbart 2 hours ago
Or "Age of Ultron".
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snide 2 hours ago
I mostly share Josh's opinion, but I think a lot of these posts that talk about Senior vs. Junior experience when working with AIs is kind of rubbish. Sure, you get better results as a Senior working with AI tooling and struggle more as a Junior. Nothing has changed in that equation except the amplification.

What folks seem to avoid is that a Junior (in ANY subject) has the ability to LEARN so much faster with an AI research assistant, and that becoming an expert has accelerated for those with the personal stamina to dig deep (this as a requirement hasn't changed). I spend just as much time with my AI tooling asking questions as I do asking it to "build" or "fix" things. "How does this work?". "Can you suggest other tools?".

I think some people always think about AI as an input / output relationship, when a lot of the time, the fiddling in between, with or without AI was always the important part. Yes people will suck in the beginning, against they always did. I think the good folks though will suck for a MUCH shorter time than I did getting into things.

A lot of people will drop out and get discouraged. That happened before too. Learning things requires persistence. I think the only real case to be made is that AI's sense of immediate pleasure can neuter people away from running into friction. AI natives likely won't understand friction and question it.

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JumpCrisscross 2 hours ago
> a Junior (in ANY subject) has the ability to LEARN so much faster with an AI research assistant

I’m not seeing this. And based on what we’re seeing at the university level, I’m not expecting to.

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sonofhans 2 hours ago
Yes, I agree, the skills are orthogonal. Digital typesetting is vastly quicker than manually putting down metal type, and since you’re exposed to more type you have the opportunity to learn faster. But getting good at typography with digital tools will help you very little if you need to lay out type manually.
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JumpCrisscross 58 minutes ago
> getting good at typography with digital tools will help you very little if you need to lay out type manually

The analogy is unlimited typing in Gmail won’t make you a better writer or typesetter on its own.

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xxs 28 minutes ago
> has the ability to LEARN so much faster with an AI research assistant, and that becoming an expert has accelerated for those with the personal stamina to dig deep (this as a requirement hasn't changed)

If anything it allows to be as lazy as possible. I have not seen anyone digging deeper with the AI tools.

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renticulous 35 minutes ago
There are other axes as well.

Companies with AI will move faster than those without.

AI itself could subsume what we collectively consider as Engineering Taste.

AI is faster at what it does. So even if a junior costs less on his own than AI. Paying extra for AI means gaining first mover advantage.

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runarberg 60 minutes ago
> a Junior (in ANY subject) has the ability to LEARN so much faster with an AI research assistant

This is a testable hypotheses with severe lack of citations. Intuition would argue the opposite. We learn by using our brains, if we offload the thinking to a machine and copy their output we don‘t learn. A child does not learn multiplication by using a calculator, and a language learner will not learn a new language by machine translating every sentence. In both cases all they’ve learnt is using a tool to do what they skipped learning.

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jononor 21 minutes ago
As a precondition I think we have to assume that the person in question 1) wants to learn and 2) is smart enough to absorb new info and apply it and 3) reflects enough to adjust their approach when hitting bottlenecks or making mistakes 4) has a drive to create. Without these, self driven learning is not viable - and that has very little to do with AI.

For such a person, I believe AI can be very empowering for learning. Like Google, wikipedia and stack overflow, Arxiv before it - AI tools give access to a lot of information. It allows to quickly dig deep into any topic you can imagine. And yes, the quality is variable - so one needs to find ways to filter and synthesize from imperfect info. But that was also the case before. Furthermore AI tools can be used to find holes in arguments or a paper. And by coding one can use it to test out things in practice. These are also powerful (albeit imperfect) learning tools. But they will not apply themselves.

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runarberg 8 minutes ago
Who is talking about self driven learning? Every workplace teachers their juniors how to do their job, and how to become better at their jobs.

And as we are talking about junior developers it is safe to assume your conditions (1), (2), and (4) are all true, if any of them are false, then why did that person apply for and get a job as a junior developer? As for condition (3), all workplaces eventually hires a person who does not fulfill this, then they either fire that person, or they give them a talk and the developer grows out of it and changes their behavior to fulfill that condition.

Aside: you listed 4 conditions for learning. I am not sure these are actually conditions recognized as such by behavior science. In fact, I doubt they are and that these conditions are just your opinions (man).

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justinhj 20 minutes ago
Smart, motivated juniors have incredible tools to amplify their learning and capabilities.
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sarreph 2 hours ago
I agree with the author that -- right now -- we're still in the part of the AI adoption / product development curve that it's an extreme force multiplier.

I like to think of it as a normal distribution, the further away a programmer is to the right of the mean, the more their benefit. It's almost like it's their standard deviation squared (σ²). So someone like Matt Perry (as OP mentioned), who is a >99.99% programmer for argument's sake and is therefore four standard deviations away from the mean... Matt gets a (4×4) 16x multiplying effect on their productivity.

Someone who is a slightly above average programmer might see a 2 or 3x boost on their productivity, which is huge(!) and might also make them fear for their job. Which tracks with the level of moral panic we are seeing and experiencing. This math kinda still holds up for "bad programmers" too (i.e. left of the mean), as in they still see a boost to their productivity (negative squared is a positive number)... but there's something iffy about their results. The technical debt is unmaintainable and because they don't _understand_ the systems that they're operating in, they end up in the "3 hour" prompt loops that the OP refers to.

> Similarly, if Matt Perry handed me the keys to the Motion repository and told me to take over, I wouldn’t have the same results even though I have access to the same set of LLM tools.

The question is -- how long is this multiplier going to exist for? Some people would wager "for the foreseeable long-term future"; some people think it will widen further; and some people think it will diminish or god forbid even collapse. It feels like most arguments at the moment (like this article's) are that the humans who "know what they are doing" will be able to baton the hatches and avoid being usurped by ever-capable models. I saw it in a café yesterday: someone was using a coding agent to build a marketing website for their project, getting more and more frustrated by not getting the outcome they wanted. Their friend typed a couple of sentences on their keyboard and got a "Dude! How did you do that? That was sick!" a minute or so later. "I used to build websites" the friend said. -- The friend 'knew what they were doing'.

How much longer is knowing what you're doing going to be a moat?

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disgruntledphd2 2 hours ago
> How much longer is knowing what you're doing going to be a moat?

For a looooonnnnngggg time, unless there's massive progress in AI research.

Fundamentally, next token prediction is limited. Granted, I'm pretty amazed at how well it's done, but if you can't activate the right parts of the models (with your prompts), then you're not going to get good results.

And to be fair, for lots of things this doesn't matter. Steve in Finance or Mindy in Marketing can create dashboards that actually help them, and the code quality mostly doesn't matter.

For stuff that needs to be shipped, monitored and maintained you still need to know what you're doing.

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iwiwk 4 minutes ago
We also need to consider the price. At some point the price will need to go up (assuming cost of producing each token doesn’t drop dramatically) to generate enough revenues to cover not only operating expenses and taxes (once the nol’s are used up) but reinvestment. OAI and Anthropic are burning through their cash balances. OAI has also stated some very ambitious plans to develop models beyond just programming… I will be very intrigued to see how they are going to generate enough revenue to fund all this in the future.
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idopmstuff 2 hours ago
100% agree with this. I think takes like OP's would be much more interesting if they staked out a position in the future. I think it's pretty uncontroversial to say that someone with a great deal of technical expertise is going to be a hugely more effective LLM user today.

The question that really matters is whether that will continue to be the case. My guess is that technical expertise matters less over time, and the ability to specify the desired outcome is eventually the only thing that becomes important. But I could be wrong! The direction this all goes is pretty fuzzy in my mind.

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DarkTree 60 minutes ago
> How much longer is knowing what you're doing going to be a moat?

To me, I don't see how this will ever not be an advantage. All software requires constraints. Some of those constraints might be objective (scale, performance, etc.) but a lot of them are subjective and require active decision making (architecture, UI, readability).

So if there was only one way to do something or only one desired output, then yes I think models would surpass humans. But like art, I don't think there is a objective truth to software and because of that, humans get the opportunity to play an important role.

Now whether that is valued from a business/industry perspective is a question that I think we all know the answer to unfortunately.

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keybored 24 minutes ago
Why does a tool whose marketing tells a bunch of people who think they are the 95th percentile in every room they enter that it will elevate those and bewilder the rest? The mind boggles.
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bluegatty 27 minutes ago
"Without guidance, LLMs tend to paint themselves into a corner, because they’re generating code to solve individual prompts, not thinking holistically about an application’s architecture." user error, mostly.

But the general argument of 'we will need skilled operators' still holds.

For every 'junior' displaced by AI, there will be some other kind of relevant role they're needed for.

Agentic workflows, integration, all the data science stuff, new UX paradigms.

I don't think the job numbers will dwindle, just shift.

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samdjstephens 58 minutes ago
Many or even most software engineers are experts in their own codebases though, which means a large proportion of engineers are getting high value out of AI.

What’s not clear to me is: if writing more code per engineer is possible, does that result in fewer engineers or just more software, especially in areas that traditionally got squeezed: UX, testing, DevEx, documentation, etc. Perhaps the bar just gets raised?

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pthambu 40 minutes ago
No question about productivity gains - absolute killer. AI isn’t no way threat to SME but how does these agents help on building future SME? I’m not sure I’m learning more like before
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sunir 2 hours ago
Humans have hard skills and abilities the ais can’t reproduce yet like real time learning, spatial reasoning, cheap parallelism, Qualia so we can identity QWAN (quality without a name) because we feel in real time what the code is.

AIs have skills humans aren’t good at like nerding out on technical details.

That’s not a perfect map because I’m spitballing. However there is a symbiosis.

I am not sure I am productive anymore with AI as I am up to 125 repos and agents most of which are tools for managing AIs and things break frequently that it feels like spinning plates.

I spent two months in November and December last year writing by hand a fundamental library to constrain how the AIs build clis. That did make things move a lot faster but for those two months I felt the slowness.

I think it will always be like this. It’s the nature of paradigm shift to shift.

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iwiwk 24 minutes ago
The way I think of it is, computer memory is superior to human memory because it can store anything and re-call on demand when requested. This is great for the human because we no longer have to remember every tiny detail - just enough to recall the object and thus opening up room for space in the brain for other stuff.

What is the llm equivalent?

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rob74 52 minutes ago
I agree with more or less everything in the article. "Agentic coding" is great, but you still need to have a good grasp of the overall architecture of your application, and actually check what the agent does, to get the best results.

The problem is just that the question is not whether "human developers will be necessary in the near future", it's "how many human developers will be necessary in the near future" - managers wanting to exploit the efficiency gains by deciding that fewer developers can now do more work "thanks" to AI.

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0xbadcafebee 2 hours ago
> AI models have become shockingly good at completing a wide variety of programming tasks. They’re certainly not perfect, but in many cases, they’re good enough. I’m not happy about this, for a wide variety of ethical/environmental/safety reasons

You cannot hold a computer liable for any of those reasons. You can, however, sue the human that built or used the AI. So those concerns shoudn't be any different with or without AI. The same problems will be here either way. If you really care about those problems, you would demand your representatives in government actually enshrine those things in law, with some teeth, to ensure companies prevent problems with them. If you don't do something about those problems (with or without AI), then it's clear by your actions that ethical/environmental/safety concerns aren't actually that important to you.

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x187463 2 hours ago
> Without guidance, LLMs tend to paint themselves into a corner, because they’re generating code to solve individual prompts, not thinking holistically about an application’s architecture.

I've found I can prevent the LLM, in many cases, from thrashing on a bug/feature for long periods of time by switching into plan mode and, even in the middle of a conversation, having it reassess the structure around the problem, first. If you keep prompting about the same bug, it may keep producing variations of the problem code. But forcing it to stop and 'think' for a bit, has yielded much better results.

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muldvarp 2 hours ago
The fact that AI currently requires some human supervision to produce valuable results is not a good predictor that it will stay this way sadly. LLMs were basically unable to reason two years ago. They are now better at many reasoning tasks than most people. If there is even a remote chance that LLMs will make your job obsolete I would pivot as fast as I could. This includes first and foremost software engineering.
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mohsen1 50 minutes ago
I agree with you. A lot of "AI code is not clean" is hopeful thinking. In two years it might be able to design and architect better than most humans too.
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geraneum 2 hours ago
The people you see in the TV are not actually in the TV box. It looks real until you try to shake one’s hand. It’s kind of the same thing with AI (reasoning and whatnot).
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muldvarp 2 hours ago
I don't think it matters if the reasoning is philosophically "real" if it can solve real problems.
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geraneum 54 minutes ago
If you read my analogy in the context of the article, it should be clearer what I meant.
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muldvarp 48 minutes ago
I think it would be even more clear if you just write what you mean.
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anilgulecha 2 hours ago
It is of course a multiplier. The worries are:

- Lesser overall engineers needed -> lesser demand of human engineers -> lower compensations

- insufficient training at junior levels.

- longer time to productive human engineering skill.

These are playing out right now, and a concern for all engineers in the industry. IronMan amplification don't address the above

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worldsayshi 2 hours ago
I see two points:

1. AIs aren't yet good at architecture.

2. AIs aren't yet good at imagining technically exciting stuff to build.

And I agree that there's still space there to build a career in the short to medium term (plus Jevons Paradox). When both those points are no longer true we are certainly much closer to, dear I say it, agi. I suspect that (1) will be solved for somewhat limited domains in the near future using harnesses. And it could snowball from there.

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zaphar 2 hours ago
Nearly every argument that hinges on the word "yet" is just an example of over-extrapolation[0] at play.

0: https://www.fallacyfiles.org/overxtra.html

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iwiwk 11 minutes ago
Moreover we haven’t seen all the effects of today’s tech to understand the net benefits.

E.g ‘productivity’ is seemingly increasing but what is the effect on a firms financial position? It’s all speculative and experimental right now.

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muldvarp 26 minutes ago
But saying "LLMs are not good at architecture so software engineering has a bright future" is _also_ extrapolation.
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worldsayshi 2 hours ago
You're probably on point there.
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idopmstuff 2 hours ago
I think the problem with this logic is it's based on the capabilities of LLMs today and really fails to address the prospect that they will continue to improve.

I used to be a PM and am technically literate enough but can only very minimally write code. I have been using LLMs to build (or try to, at least) internal tools for my business since GPT-4.

In the early days, I'd get a little ways, then the LLM would start breaking things, and I'd try but fail to get it to fix things. But over successive generations, I was increasingly able to get it unstuck by offering suggestions on where it may have gone wrong. With Opus 4.7, I don't even really have to do that - if something isn't working it's usually sufficient to just tell it what's broken. It can figure out how to fix it without my input. And of course fewer things are broken in the first place.

So I think I'm very well positioned to understand how these things are improving - better able to get the LLM to do what I want than the post OP quoted from /vibecoding (though I am 99% sure that post is actually AI slop), but less so than most of the people posting in this thread. As they've improved, whatever ability I have to guess at the causes of problems based on my experience having seen things go wrong with products I've PMed has become less necessary to getting the right outcome.

I expect that trend to continue - increasingly the LLM won't need the guidance of people with a great deal of technical expertise. I basically no longer have to attempt to diagnose problems in order to get them fixed, though with the caveat that I am building internal tools for which I am the only user, so certainly much simpler in scope than the stuff OP is talking about.

> Without guidance, LLMs tend to paint themselves into a corner, because they’re generating code to solve individual prompts, not thinking holistically about an application’s architecture.

The crux of what I'm trying to say here is that I absolutely believe that this line is 100% true today, but I would be deeply cautious about assuming that it will continue to be true given the improvements in LLMs over the past few years.

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yanis_t 2 hours ago
> the most talented developers I know amplify what they can do with AI

Not the most talented developer, but this has been pretty much my experience as well. Just keep it under control, know what and why its doing at every step, read the code, and then it will boost your productivity.

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mehagar 2 hours ago
I just hope my employer comes to the same conclusion before I get laid off.
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akersten 2 hours ago
Hmm. I think extrapolating from the reddit people who say "I tried vibe coding an entire app from scratch and all I said was fix this and make no mistakes and it didn't work" is a bad data source and will give you the wrong intuition. Of course it won't work when you hold it like that. But put just a tiny bit of knowledge and guidance into the prompt and AI will nail it.

I didn't think this 6 months ago but today after what I've seen these models debug and accomplish in established, messy production monoliths, I'm fully convinced even the worst vibe coders are only a year or two away from being able to actually create something from scratch and have it not blow up 50 files in.

So I guess I take the totally opposite stance, today's AI is the worst AI will ever be at coding, and I believe the vested interests behind AI do not plan on making it any worse at this task, so...

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therealmacsteel 2 hours ago
We are quickly reaching a point though that programmers will become so reliant on llm for coding so much so as people have become soul reliant on their phones to remember phone numbers, the younger generations dont have a single phone number they can call to memory and soon the same will be true of code.
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Ecys 59 minutes ago
>AI is a powerful multiplier for people who already have deep technical expertise. The people seeing the biggest wins with AI are already highly skilled.

This sentiment will stray further from the truth as time goes on.

Sure, it's a multiplier for those who are already skilled, but for those who are unskilled, it is capable of taking you from 0 -> 1+.

The ones currently benefiting from AI are the ones who (i) have a general understanding of how an AI works and experience with using it and (ii) have a very generic understanding of what it is they're trying to do (programming, most likely) and know the limits of their tools, but don't know how to actually do anything meaningful.

The whole point of AI is to open the door of complexity to normies; they are the ones benefiting most from it. For a skilled developer, it may make a 1hr task -> 5 mins; for a normie, it makes something which was utterly impossible into -> now within his reality to achieve. the difference for normies is just more life-changing.

If you think of skilled developers as the ceiling and normies as the floor, AI raises the floor higher by giving normies more capability, which makes the ceiling seem less impressive. But eventually the floor will surpass the ceiling, and then it'll be a matter of who can operate AI better/how good AI is.

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archimedes237 57 minutes ago
I know someone who got AI to make a full minecraft bot gui that will put down waypoints for people to see and dig at and then do an in-game dig search (bot uses jsmacros) and they know zero coding.
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semireg 2 hours ago
Is this just an ad for whimsical animations? Seemed like an abrupt change.
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ediatedia 23 minutes ago
Yeah, this couldn't have really gone any better for the author, opinion piece hitting HN with a link for a course in it.

I understand the need to make a living but hard to take this stuff seriously/sincerely with the, "and buy my course!" angle.

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renticulous 30 minutes ago
It feels like AI topic on HN is going through the phase of when /r/stablediffusion subreddit was going through phase of real artist vs ai artist discussions.
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mapcars 2 hours ago
I see this as a much more solid and mature take than those who "boo" about AI taking their jobs.
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vb-8448 2 hours ago
I don't agree, LLMs/AI does definitely have agency.

Maybe not the same agency you would expect from a human being, but if you put them in a ralph loop they can go far, far away, and mostly because on how we build our world in the pre-llm era: do you need to order something (or you want to hire a hitman)? -> you can go do it on a web site or via whatsapp or by calling some API.

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JumpCrisscross 2 hours ago
> you put them in a ralph loop they can go far, far away

The point is they mostly wind up somewhere stupid, and it takes expertise to spot and correct that. (Maybe that changes with further development.)

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vb-8448 56 minutes ago
With enough time (and tokens), they'll eventually recover.

It's essentially a "brute force" approach, but in most cases, they only need to succeed once.

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JumpCrisscross 53 minutes ago
> With enough time (and tokens), they'll eventually recover

The article’s point is this is not true. They wind up in bullshit attractors where they hit a wall and then get lost within their muddled context window.

> they only need to succeed once

Yet they don’t. Not on their own. Like, you haven’t had an LLM get stuck in a stupid loop where you point out the flaw and then it gets unstuck?

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keybored 27 minutes ago
> I want to talk a bit about AI and the related shifts in the tech industry. I know this is top-of-mind for lots of y’all, and you might be wondering if it even makes sense to learn new programming skills in this environment.

Y’all sound the same:

> Let’s start with an uncomfortable truth: AI models have become shockingly good at completing a wide variety of programming tasks. They’re certainly not perfect, but in many cases, they’re good enough. I’m not happy about this, for a wide variety of ethical/environmental/safety reasons, but it is what it is.

More Inevitabilism posting with the “not happy with” but is-what-it-is washing of your hands. At a distance you all look the same: an army of posts insisting the obvious, the inevitable; who knows why you all need to sound the same and say the same thing, but I guess it is to keep it top-of-mind for us alls. It is what it is.

> [...] It’s never been easier to learn about new topics, with tools like ChatGPT that can answer any questions you have. But that only works when you know what questions to ask. My course offers a curated curriculum that will introduce you to all sorts of new techniques. I think you’ll be amazed at what you can build after taking the course.

Okay, sure. I ask these LLMs things too (c.f. outright --be coding) so that’s not necessarily incongruent with the stance of being not-happy-about-this.

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datakan 2 hours ago
Back in the late 90's when the internet was really just becoming a thing with most people, a friend said something that's stuck with me all these years. "We're losing our moderate speech."

Everything these days is either the greatest thing ever or the worst thing ever. All the stuff in the middle has vanished. Very few it seems acknowledge AI as being a useful tool. It's either "We're all being replaced" or "The technology is all slop" and everyone talks over each other like it's the Super Bowl and their teams are battling it out.

It would be nice if we could just look to the opportunities this tech offers and focus on that.

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zb3 2 hours ago
AI just further increases inequality.. this is fine for the author for now, but might not be fine anymore when we end up with the eventual result - winner-take-all, where one will boast 2500000x productivity increase, while others have no job.

When you see rising inequality, don't just cheer because you happen to win for now.. maybe think about the future and also others..

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jplusequalt 2 hours ago
>I think AI tools are more like Iron Man’s suit. It can do incredible things, but not on its own.

Seemingly every AI pilled programmer who writes a blog post on AI's impact on software engineering has the same philosophical argument, and it's wording changes slightly every 6-12 months to reflect the newest models capabilities.

In 2023 it was: "AI is just autocomplete. It can't code whole blocks on it's own."

In 2024 it was: "AI is only good for scaffolding new projects, or boiler plate code. It can't write the application whole sale."

Since November 2025 it's been: "AI is only writing the code for us. It can't manage architecture, or do the long term planning required for real world applications."

In 6-12 months when the AI is doing an increasing amount of the architecture and high level planning, what will AI pilled programmers fall back on then?

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martythemaniak 2 hours ago
I think they're jumping to the right conclusions - because the impetus to get as rid of as many people as possible isn't generally based on understanding, analysis, results, or lessons learned but a FOMO-like mania spread primarily through executive-class groupchats. This is, IMO, what mitchelh referred to last week as entire companies being in the grip of AI psychosis.

So while the author's points are completely true and valid, an executive will say "True, but Claude will get smarter faster than these problems and in 3 years it'll fix everything" and there's absolutely nothing you can say or do in response to this.

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rasgkl 2 hours ago
The "it is just a tool" talking point is very fashionable right now to pretend that plagiarizing material is still a meritocracy.
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fizza_pizza 41 minutes ago
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light_tech 2 hours ago
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