No, the hope really is these other platforms with a shared memory architecture. The DGX Spark won't be it because of the aforementioned market segmentation. So that leaves two players: AMD and Apple.
The AMD platform is still too low memory bandwidth, currently <300GB/s. For comparison a 5090 (or 6000 Pro) is 1.8TB/s and the M3 Ultra Mac Studio is ~900GB/s. Oh and B100/B200 uses HBM3e memory at ~3.2TB/s. The M5 Max in some Macbook Pros tops out at ~600GB/s. So you need access to better RAM and better CPU architecture for all this.
My great white hope is Apple. They have the market power to get memory and build silicon that coul dhave enough FLOPS to compete with NVidia's platform. They've started talking about it and I've seen rumors they're targeting the M7 generation (2028) for a huge leap. I'll believe it when I see it however.
But the point is, I think we'll be running 31B models at 100+tok/s on enthusiast hardware in 2 years and we'll likely be able to locally run 100-400B models, possibly larger.
It’s kind of like general aviation where you can go buy a Cessna but it’s only going to realistically get you somewhere you could drive anyways but do you really wanna spend that mush cash to get road trip distance at slightly better than road trip speeds? You really need a 5 million dollar jet and that’s just not practical. That’s sort of how I feel about this device.
My Spark can do Qwen3.6 MoE A3B at 60 to 70-ish token/second and that's really good, but there's limits the usefulness of that model. It's not useful for coding, in any case.
Once people can run something like GLM 5.2 at lower quants (512GB could do a passable job), then I think the story changes.
Whether we ever see DRAM as cheap as it was ever again, I don't know.
That doesn't mean that local models are useless though! If Mythos/Sol is an ASI that threatens to take your job and turn you into paperclips, then Qwen/Gemma is an old-fashioned office secretary that loyally helps you with tasks but doesn't have a good grasp of details. Every white-collar worker 50 years ago would have killed to have a hard-working personal secretary.
Yeah it is slower than real RAM by a good amount for latency, but you can get similar bandwidth and the cost was history about half of the same size DDR.
Not anymore cost effective, I guess, but gets you the ability to work over very large model sizes maybe. But the problem is that tensor matmul etc hardware wouldn't work effectively with it.
Useful for KVCache though.