U.S. used 'virtually all' of its long-range precision missiles during Iran war
89 points by tcp_handshaker 53 minutes ago | 93 comments

PowerElectronix 27 minutes ago
Now they'll exhaust interceptors and other long range missiles like tomahawks and whatnot.

And then China gets frisky with Taiwan and the US will totally not abandon them and tell them to just give up pressured by the lack of firepower to defend them, the risks of China getting back into bidding oil in international markets and the mess the treasury would be in if China raises capital by selling bonds (they just told the fed to print more so Japan can buy yens without selling their US bonds, so they are at least very concerned about the possibility).

Sorry for the rant.

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chmod775 15 minutes ago
If they can exhaust all their firepower in a couple weeks fighting Iran, China would have no reason to feel threatened in the first place.

The reality is that fighting China would be a proper all-out war, not whatever this spitting match with Iran is.

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notaigenerated 14 minutes ago
There won't ever be an "all out war" of nuclear states with each other. Only via proxies.
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chmod775 9 minutes ago
Of course there can be - likely with a gentleman's understanding that neither would use them, and each side careful to not back the other into a corner where they'd have nothing left to lose.

It's just going to be your typical meatgrinder and attrition warfare.

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peyton 4 minutes ago
You could fight conventionally over logistics chokepoints. China’s not going to lob nukes just because their oil’s dried up.
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Arodex 8 minutes ago
>not whatever this spitting match with Iran is.

Are you openly saying the president and the secretary of war are lying when they say they have done "massive" bombings of Iran?

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grey-area 7 minutes ago
The president openly lies all the time. About his pool refurbishment, the size of his crowds and even how good he is at golf.
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sneurlax 2 minutes ago
Are their mouths open and are they making noise? Then yes.
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pjc50 6 minutes ago
That's an easy one: I don't even have to look at what the facts are to be sure they're lying. Just a question of what about.

Although "massive" is a subjective word. Nothing can be as massive as WW2 carpet bombing.

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BenFranklin100 6 minutes ago
I imagine elements in the Taiwanese govt are pushing a massive drone network to turn the nation into a porcupine.
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rbanffy 19 minutes ago
On the flip side, at least the press is not hammering the Epstein files and the lack of any prosecution for the crimes documented in those.
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pjc50 5 minutes ago
Much of the press is pro-regime or owned by regime oligarchs.
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locknitpicker 13 minutes ago
Trump's Iran war is known as "operation Epstein fury"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reactions_to_the_2026_Iran_war

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Razengan 9 minutes ago
It's amazing how a handful of people can cause the deaths and suffering of millions.. throughout history.

What the fuck is wrong with the human species and its tendency for self-destructive leader-worship??

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dccoolgai 21 minutes ago
3 generations of wealth poured into the most expensive military in recorded history - the reason that we don't have health care, clean energy, decent social safety nets and so many other things... and they can't even control a small stretch of water. What a waste.
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simonh 14 minutes ago
The health care issue in the USA isn't due to lack of funding, the US spends more on health care per person than any other country, double that of many European countries with single payer systems.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_hea...

The costs of medicare, medicaid and CHIP to tax payers are about what most Europeans pay in tax for universal health care, but then they also need to pay for health insurance for themselves.

As for controlling Hormuz, the US military absolutely could control Hormuz. I'm confident it's quite capable of it. It's that the US public wouldn't support the immense cost in lives and treasure it would take to do it, and maintain that control. No other military could even try, but the the USA could. It's not a matter of lack of military capacity.

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nwatson 38 seconds ago
Health insurance company margins are 3% to 5%. The book America’s Bitter Pill: Money, Politics, Back-Room Deals, and the Fight to Fix Our Broken Healthcare System (2015) by journalist Steven Brill blames mostly wasteful practices in hospitals, pharma and device manufacturers, government and corporate health administration costs.
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aeve890 38 seconds ago
>No other military could even try

Iran military is trying alright.

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rbanffy 15 minutes ago
Soft power would have gone a long way towards furthering US interests in the Middle East. Unfortunately, it seems too late for that. By the time a new administration's diplomacy reverts the current antagonism and lack of trust, the dollar will have lost ground as the default reserve currency and financing US debt will become much more expensive than it is now, making military expenses prohibitive, but still a priority.

This is usually the point the economy is flipped around into a war-based economy where all output is directed to military equipment.

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wongarsu 34 minutes ago
That's the one glaring weakness of relying too heavily on missiles. They are expensive and difficult to manufacture. And they have a limited shelf life, making stockpiles also expensive

In previous conflicts the US military could get a lot done with bombs, but that's risky if you can't get air superiority and take out all enemy anti-air systems. Which is more difficult against an enemy who can shoot at your air bases and aircraft carriers. But those previous conflicts might have contributed to a false sense of security about required missile stockpiles

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PowerElectronix 22 minutes ago
Doctrine never intended for these bombs to be used almost exclusively as means to wage wars. These are meant for strikes that need to be precise and carried in a short notice.

If you have 10 targets and use atacms in all 10, there's something wrong in the decision making process or the strategy.

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dathinab 12 minutes ago
> something wrong

like waging a war while insisting they aren't really waging a war and it's just a special military operation and as a side effect having effectively no access to a lot of the resources/means normally used

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pjc50 16 minutes ago
The fault in the decision process was starting this war in the first place. Everything follows from that.
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firesteelrain 12 minutes ago
Air superiority was established fairly early on in the conflict. Flying F-15 and F-16s now. Not even stealth and they drop more than just missles - they carry bombs. B-52s weren’t sent in to carpet bomb the area of that’s what you mean.

US could indiscriminately drop dumb bombs but you would have a higher civilian casualty rate.

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closewith 23 minutes ago
You have the same issue with the conventional bombs and their guidance kits, which when delivered in contested areas are not usually cheaper.

The issue is general industrial capacity, not missiles specifically.

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locknitpicker 21 minutes ago
> That's the one glaring weakness of relying too heavily on missiles. They are expensive and difficult to manufacture. And they have a limited shelf life, making stockpiles also expensive

I don't think so. This observation completely misses the root cause, and it ain't missiles.

Armed forces size their stockpiles in terms of their short term needs focused on rapid reaction and deterrence. The goal is to be able to react to immediate threats and then shift the economy to a war economy to supply the effort in economically efficient ways.

What failed this time is that the trump administration was hoping to attack Iran without having to declare war, effectively starting a war without preparing for the war.

The results are obvious: the peace time stockpile was depleted at a time where the country was not prepared to replenish it. Trump shifter the us armed forces to deplete their stockpile while avoiding the responsibility of supporting them in their mission by taking care of supplies.

And so they ran out of ammo.

There are further compounding factors such as a lack of plan and lack of exit strategy. But placing your military in a state where they spend their ammo without any plan to ressuply it... You will have the same problem if you replace hellfire missiles with sticks and stones.

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MagicMoonlight 29 minutes ago
[dead]
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BadBadJellyBean 33 minutes ago
Did the US just have the same fate as Russia where they where feared for their military until they used it?
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dathinab 4 minutes ago
yesn't in case of Russia a lot of their military just "didn't work properly"/"was ineffective in a very fundamental way"

this wasn't the case for the US, their military did work and was effective in context of the specific think they where used for. It's just that the thing they where used for isn't effective in winning the kind of conflict the US did start.

while this is "just" the "non effective" part being some where else it is a very fundamental difference in the end

like to put it this way,

if weapons of mass destruction like nukes, bio weapons etc. would magically disappear an invasion and takeover of (part of mainland) Russia would be relatively viable (mainly by China, but others might want a slice, too).

on the other hand even without weapons of mass destruction trying to invade the mainland US still seems futile/to be a losing battle, no matter who tries it.

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Philorandroid 21 minutes ago
I think that's an unfair assessment. Depleting a stockpile of a particular munition (since missile strikes are less unpopular than a full-scale deployment) because of overreliance shows a particular strain, not a pervasive weakness.
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thinkindie 29 minutes ago
It wouldn’t be the first war the USA loose against a smaller enemy. See Vietnam, Afghanistan, etc etc.
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matheusmoreira 7 minutes ago
The USA has never been defeated. It's never been taken over by force and forced to submit to a foreign power. War getting a little too expensive or politically unpopular for their tastes is not really a loss, and it implies nothing about their true capabilities.

It's their relentless deindustrialization that will eventually do them in. The USA's industrial output back in WWII was staggering, its enemies had little hope of victory given the sheer number of materiel that would eventually get deployed. Since then they've been voluntarily giving up much of that industrial advantage out of greed.

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actionfromafar 27 minutes ago
This was very quick though.
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thibaut_barrere 25 minutes ago
It turns out public money is more expensive these days. Debt is a more mainstreamly exposed problem.
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thinkindie 26 minutes ago
Iran has been preparing for this war for almost 50 years, and they have more leverage than Vietnamese or Talebans had.
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firesteelrain 14 minutes ago
US didn’t lose in Vietnam or Afghanistan.
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deadbunny 25 seconds ago
The US spend 20 years in Afgan fighting to remove the Taliban from power only to hand power to the Taliban.

The US spent years fighting north Vietnamese forces only to sign a peace treaty, leave south Vietnam and then 2 years later have North Vietnam take over South Vietnam and unify the country.

You don't consider completely failing your objectives failure?

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theandrewbailey 9 minutes ago
Saigon fell, and the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan.
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firesteelrain 4 minutes ago
[flagged]
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Arodex 6 minutes ago
Who rules Vietnam? Who rules Afghanistan? Tell us.
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closewith 20 minutes ago
No, the opposite has happened with this war. Adversaries globally have seen the ability of the US and Israel to operate with near-impunity over Iran, and it has destroyed confidence in non-Western defence systems.

The big weakness is industrial capacity, but only China can exploit that at scale.

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epolanski 26 minutes ago
Apple and oranges comparison.

The Russo-Ukrainian war is a war of invasion.

The US-Iranian is more of an air superiority campaign.

If you want any take away lesson: don't attack people that have major reasons to defend themselves and don't underestimate the efficiency of asymmetric warfare.

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nonethewiser 11 minutes ago
With stories like this you always have to ask “Who are the sources?”

“People who are familiar with this matter” is doing a lot of work.

This reeks of laundering lies.

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chis 7 minutes ago
It might actually be for the best to stress the system in this way. It's not practical to keep a military based only around "stockpiles" that you're scared to use up. Modern combat looks like long wars of attrition where two countries compete to see who can burn through more missiles so you need to keep the actual supply chain active.

Hopefully they're able to learn lessons from Ukraine as well and pivot towards cheaper missiles and autonomous vehicles

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Squarex 33 minutes ago
That's hard to believe. US with it's military spending should be able to join two large scale conflicts at the same time, not to have problem with a one minor conflict.
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martinky24 31 minutes ago
It’s easier to believe when missiles are the only strategy being used in the war…
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firesteelrain 11 minutes ago
It’s a clickbait article
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abcd_f 5 minutes ago
Never underestimate how much damage a single high-ranked idiot can inflict on its own ranks.
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bluegatty 23 minutes ago
It's easy to believe, it's hard to realize.

The conflict with Iran is only 'minor' in certain respects, it's a major air campaign otherwise, involving strategic bombing on par with the Iraq War 2 - or at least the initial period.

The US is bombing them from very far away places, the amount of logistical overhead is unthinkable.

These munitions cost a fortune in part because they are purchased in lower quantities, and yes, they have to be able to do a 10x-50x instant ramp up in order to be effective (aka capacity not inventory which is the strategic key).

It takes 2 years minimum to adjust an economy in that way and the US does not have good supply chains.

It's unlikely the US could hope to fight any kind of prolonged conflict with China 'in the area of Chinese territory' for very obvious reasons: they have the supply chains, 1 billion workers, and can turn them on a dime, and don't have 'far to go' to deploy weapons.

The US doesn't even have reliable ways of getting goods and materials into the theatre and has limited quantities of everything.

That said, there are still ways to defend Taiwan and/or to make an invasion futile - but 'broad conflict' ... nope.

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firesteelrain 10 minutes ago
> The US doesn't even have reliable ways of getting goods and materials into the theatre and has limited quantities of everything.

This is not true. US is known for the best logistics in the world.

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bluegatty 3 minutes ago
US has 600 air refuelling aircraft and 40 naval supply ships.

US power is mostly strategic, it's 'Air Based' which gives the kind of instant leverage leaders like. It's 'Aircraft Carrier Based'.

The US doesn't have that same overwhelming ability otherwise.

You can't quite an Army overseas - it takes a different kind of logistics esp. in Pacific, one the US doesn't quite have the level of sophistication.

Don't get me wrong - 'it could' but would take a while to ramp up.

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matchbok3 32 minutes ago
That would be true if the money spent was actually optimized on output rather than expensive contractors, consultants, and third party profits. :(
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bad_haircut72 24 minutes ago
America could theretically sustain other cheaper losses, like a few more F15s going down - but Trump is rightfully terrified of the political fallout of American pilots being capturred and torture videos showing up on Telegram.
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bluegatty 22 minutes ago
They are not cheaper losses, because production capacity for those things is very limited.

Missiles are always easier to replace then platforms of any kind.

But yes - a single, lone captive could cause political devastation.

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kubb 30 minutes ago
Paper tiger.
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Philorandroid 12 minutes ago
Venezuela thought the same thing. Keeping a full-scale deployment at arm's length, and 'only' targeting military targets with exhaustive use of precision missiles is poor strategy, but if a military victory were the US's only ambition the Iranian regime has no capability that could prevent its country from being turned into a smoldering parking lot.

Doctrine isn't the same as inability.

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throwthrowuknow 24 minutes ago
Don’t worry, they can still carpet bomb with high explosive and nuclear always remains an option lest you forget.
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bluegatty 21 minutes ago
In some ways yes, not in others.
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UltraSane 25 minutes ago
That is a remarkably stupid thing to say about the US military.
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Arodex 3 minutes ago
"Minor" conflict? You really don't realize how much ressources Hesgeth has committed to this, and how much your president likes to make things go "boom".
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mattlondon 19 minutes ago
North Korea has a bunch they're willing to sell. Russia is buying already so get 'em while they're hot.

I have been vaguely watching the Ukraine conflict over the past few years. From my distant and zero experience observations, it seems like missiles are extremely effective BUT also extremely limited. So you blow up that one building or SAM you targeted. Well done. What about the other 10,000 static targets? What about the guys with FPV drones and shoulder-launched anti-air now inside the rubble of the building you just destroyed? Send another XX-million USD missile to blow up the building you already blew up?

Feels like a determined adversary who is not easily cowed with a quick bit of "shock and awe" and armed with cheap, mobile winged/quad drones and man-portable guided anti-air/-tank missiles has totally changed the equation. Expensive limited missiles/planes/ships in smaller numbers seem kinda limited in their ability to get results in today's battlefield where there are FPV drones literally at every turn, and can be operated from literally a hole in the ground by people who aren't about to easily surrender.

It feels somewhat like the US doctrine has been to start with a "hit 'em hard" opening salvo of cruise/ballistic missiles and rockets etc and hope for immediate surrender. So far the lesson from Ukraine and Iran seems to be expect a big wave first attack or two and if you survive that initial push then suddenly the big super-power has no more cards left to play and it's down to men on the ground with hand-held weapons and drones. I wonder if people will look back at this era as a "WW1 moment" where the old ways of battle suddenly looked hopelessly out of date.

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cyanregiment 2 minutes ago
All the expensive planes are falling out of the sky too. It seems like some weird plan to unwind the US ever since Obama left office.

There’s no growth or hope. It’s all bad news, war, and rumors of war - and all reads like a bad WWE script.

Just seems like a coordinated effort to destroy from within since about ~2016 or at least act out this play of America in Decline

Whatever, would be way better if they celebrate collaboration and forward thinking again.

Mainly because it’s just so boring under Trump - this should have been a 4 year show

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drdrek 7 minutes ago
Does this mean that from now on bombings will happen with dumb bombs and that we can expect way more Iranian casualties? Otherwise this seems incorrect.
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Jgrubb 36 minutes ago
What is there even to say about this? Where does one even begin?
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rf15 27 minutes ago
Okay, let's start.

- A country, even as big as the US, is strictly, evidently, not exceptional.

- The US lost the majority of the wars it joined/started in the last 100 years and came home every time trying to sell it as a victory despite not achieving their war goals.

- You may have weapons or power of some kind, but every move you make costs you some kind of currency: time, material, energy, credibility, goodwill. You may have large amounts, but they're never infinite.

- Acts of raw destruction as mean towards a goal is often not ideal: change and control are "constructive" concepts, while bombs can only offer you guaranteed chaos. You MIGHT be able to steer that chaos afterwards, but it's not guaranteed and numbers do not simply improve your position here. (see: Iraq, etc.)

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bluegatty 8 minutes ago
No - the Iran war is a total strategic failure, but the US is very obviously 'exceptional' - I'm not saying necessarily admirable, or more moral etc but it is hugely 'stand out' in terms of capabilities. That's just a fact of reality irrespective of all of the political and moral context.

- The US did not 'lose' the majority of the wars it started - it won most of them, and arguably failed to achieve strategic objectives in some.

- "Acts of raw destruction as mean towards a goal is often not ideal " - this is a misrepresentation of US doctrine for decades. Even in Vietnam the US did not pursue 'full war' and refused to do strategic bombing in North Vietnam for a decade. As soon as Nixon did (op: Linebacker) - basically, the US 'won' right away. They decimated N. Vietnamese ability in a very material way. Were that strategy to have been undertaken in 1967, the war would have had a completely different outcome, probably more like Korean detente.

- US is very careful in their campaigns, there are chains of authority, externalizations are always assessed. The rules of engagement may shift a but - but it's false to suggest it's 'arbitrarily destructive' in targeting, it's generally minimal.

If you want to see what 'destructive' is, just look at Russian engagement in Ukraine, or Assad in Syria, or Saudi in Yemen. They don't care what they hit, it's a totally different environment.

To this day Iran's Oil Infrastructure remains intact. Just let that sink in.

All of this is outside of any moral or whatever other consideration - it's just 'what it is'.

The 'important note' here is that 'Power Has Limits' and that's truly the defining characterization of this war. This is not 'America is not capable' is that 'capabilities have limits' - and they become very obvious in difficult ways if power is applied poorly.

The Generals 100% warned Trump of all of this - this conflict is not a military failure in that sense, this is predictable. It's the political apparatus pushing the boundaries. The Generals would have none of this.

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tclancy 14 minutes ago
That fools running a country who turfed out military experience for loyalty were completely blind to what they were doing? I had no idea that running out of missiles was a distinct possibility until Spencer Ackerman started beating that drum in his newsletter around the start of the conflict. Forever Wars (along with the pieces he links to) has been an eye opening read.
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ZeroGravitas 15 minutes ago
> Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. - Dwight D. Eisenhower 1953
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dgellow 23 minutes ago
US adversary countries have to love everything that is happening. If you’re China you win by doing nothing, just let the US administration pillage the country
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nonethewiser 8 minutes ago
One begins by looking at the sources which the article dies not substantiate.
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pjc50 8 minutes ago
"Play stupid games, win stupid prizes", international relations edition.

America is not happy when it is not at war. There has to be an enemy. The old WOT had finally run out of steam; people are coming out of college who were born after 9/11. Venezuela (and Latin America generally) made a good enemy for a while, but they were too easily defeated. But Iran? America has wanted a rematch since Jimmy Carter.

(A bipartisan problem, mostly, but propped up by pro-war media. The only people against it are a few Democrats, almost all of whom are women)

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bsenftner 32 minutes ago
This nation is sitting ducks? The only reason we don't have Red Dawn is nobody wants this nation idiots.
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greesil 34 minutes ago
Time to send in the ground troops. Nothing bad can happen. /s
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jeroenhd 29 minutes ago
It bodes well for Europeans when the Americans begin their invasion of Denmark, at the very least. Not great for a potential Russia-USA war and Taiwan wouldn't get as much support if the Chinese invade would also be difficult, though.

The title says "virtually all" but the first paragraph says "much". The actual stockpile is probably larger than this news report would make it seem. It would be convenient for Trump and his Russia-loving cronies if it would appear that the USA has no more weapons to support Ukraine with, of course.

Many advanced NATO weapons being difficult to produce and only being available in small quantities is something that has been discussed before, I don't think that's news. The rate at which they're being spammed without much result at Iran is, but that's hardly surprising given the current people in charge.

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haunter 14 minutes ago
>The U.S. Army has used up

So not the US. There is also the Navy, Air Force etc

Borderline clickbait

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mupuff1234 11 minutes ago
> A fourth person familiar with the matter said that while Central Command — which oversees U.S. forces in the Middle East — has nearly used up the land-based missiles it had before the war began, it has been able to reload from U.S. military supplies elsewhere in the world.

The title seems fairy inaccurate

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nonethewiser 6 minutes ago
It also says they declined to say how many the US has left. And saying “person familiar with the matter” is doing a lot of work. It could be any analyst with no direct information. This is exactly what laundered lies look like.
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tclancy 8 minutes ago
I don’t think the title is inaccurate and robbing Peter to pay Paul isn’t the military flex Pete Hesgeth may think it is. Anyone who has ever slept under a too-small comforter knows how this will go.
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mupuff1234 6 minutes ago
Moving resources within an organization isn't exactly robbing.
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SillyUsername 6 minutes ago
It's a good job their allies will defend them then if their ammo is low - this isn't sarcasm, it's the point of NATO, but hey if Trump still wants to pull out of that alliance...
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xtiansimon 23 minutes ago
> “U.S. has used…”

Missing the ‘has’ part for “present perfect tense”, e.g. “a past action with present relevance”.

In an ongoing war.

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amelius 11 minutes ago
They don't have the cards ...
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DrProtic 28 minutes ago
Same way Russia ran out of missiles 3 years ago?
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redwood 21 minutes ago
The article is about the Army (not the Navy or Air Force for example)
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tibbydudeza 11 minutes ago
To no farking effect - Iran is still as bellicose as ever.
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closewith 27 minutes ago
The headline is inaccurate, as the article actually says that the US Army has used nearly all of its long-range precision missiles, referring to ATACMS and PCM.

First, those are short- to medium-range weapons.

Second, the USAF and USN hold most of the US's long-range precision weaponry, the only real exception being the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW), which is not yet fielded.

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redwood 25 minutes ago
This is already the lifeline Europe is using to save its auto industry from the electric... the US is next. Just need to open up competitive bidding for the production of these components. Licensing patriot production to Ukraine will be a good start... S. Korea next
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RobertoG 18 minutes ago
yeah, let's start all to produce more weapons. What could possible go wrong. What about this? The USA just go home, nobody is going to invade them.
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nakedrobot2 26 minutes ago
there is a lot of money to be made, building more of them :(
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shevy-java 12 minutes ago
Trump is like Al Capone - just dumber.

There is not really any strategy here in place that makes sense from an US point of view. There is a strategy in place that may make sense for Netanyahu (e. g. remain in power) but this is not a US strategic point of view. Trump seems to be the most easily influenced roleplaying as "president". People need to follow the money trail here - that would explain the whole situation right now best.

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Madmallard 13 minutes ago
Wrong website.

This is not reddit/r/politics.

This is HACKER NEWS

Please get this agenda slop off the front page thanks.

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lifestyleguru 22 minutes ago
Americans living in their bubble might be unable to see from a perspective, but from outside is quite apparent that American-Israeli conflict against Iran will long outlive both Trump and Netanjahu. Hopefully that was the last dumb thing and decision they made.
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embedding-shape 31 minutes ago
I like how China and Russia are mentioned as adversaries that the US might be less likely to deter with their dwindling supply of long-range munition, but the country that so helpfully received all that supply and is the reason for the stockpile being minimal right now, isn't mentioned as an adversary that could take advantage of this.
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tclancy 9 minutes ago
Think Ukraine is the reason the US is low on missiles? Do the numbers actually support that? The numbers don’t seem to support that. From a very cursory search, offensive missiles seem to be around 2:1 Iran. And that’s just raw numbers; someone other than me who might do a little moral editorializing would point out the use in Ukraine was to fight off an illegal invasion while the most effective strike in Iran killed a hundred schoolgirls.
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actionfromafar 23 minutes ago
Ukraine will take advantage of low PrSM stock ... how?
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