True Rate of Unemployment
103 points by ptrhvns 4 hours ago | 35 comments

runako 2 hours ago
Anybody who believes ~30% of the workforce was functionally unemployed in 1999 does not know what those words mean, or was not an adult in 1999.

I get what they are trying to convey, but the stronger message is the more straightforward: there are too many jobs that do not pay enough to live on.

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xbmcuser 54 minutes ago
For me the true problem which most countries dont even acknowledge is low wealth and capital gains tax. Salaries are not enough because of land prices and the prices inflation it causes through out the economy. You bring down price of home land rent then price of everything else comes down. And their is a lot more economic activity as trillions of dollars are not parked in real estate for wealth generation.
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psalaun 2 minutes ago
I agree, but taxing real estate as an investment would break the wealth structure of many voters (and politicians) above the 80th percentile of wealth. For half a century, in France, it's been told that real estate was the safest/best investment for households; everyone was passively peer pressured each year, whatever the macroeconomic situation at the moment, to buy. This is a Ponzi scheme, so even the middle class households that recently bought their own shitty flat in Paris will never vote for such a tax because their overpriced asset would lose value and it's often their only lifelong investment.

The same fear will happen if you just target investors owning multiple real estate with this tax, or simply forbid by law from owning several flats in high demand areas. The right wing would scream that the hard working French guy won't be able to invest his hard won money, but the very rich foreigners from Saudi Arabia or investments funds from USA will find a loophole thanks to their infinite money and buy all the french real estate.

Hell, most people in my country are against inheritance tax despite a huge part of them not rich enough to pay it, meanwhile inequalities are rising because of inherited wealth. So taxing the land won't happen, the bourgeoisie has been too effective in its propaganda.

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jandrewrogers 11 minutes ago
Income from capital has a low tax rate in the US (and many other countries) because you can deduct neither losses due to inflation nor losses due to risk, both of which are substantial for capital income but non-existent for wage income. The lower tax rate is simpler than actually accounting for these differences.

Treating wage and capital income equivalently would require recognizing losses due to inflation and risk that simply don’t exist in a meaningful way for wage income. Taxing them similarly without very negative consequences requires recognizing these differences in some fashion.

Taxing wealth has myriad additional problems. In the US, about 2/3 of wealth is completely non-liquid so any theoretical valuation is fiction and highly leveraged.

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jaredklewis 32 minutes ago
A land value tax would fix rich people parking money in real estate. A wealth tax or capital gains tax would not.
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ryan_lane 28 minutes ago
If a land value tax would fix rich people from parking money in real estate, it would price regular people out of real estate.

I know LVT is the libertarian dream, but in practice it means only the rich can own real estate long-term, in most cities. It also means the rich can drive out the poor by driving up land values around them, to the point where the taxes are too much to afford.

LVT simply wouldn't be a good system, if applied in the real world.

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brainwad 7 minutes ago
It wouldn't price regular people out; the LVT would be cost neutral to owner occupiers more or less, since housing prices are limited by the salaries of the middle class who buy houses on mortgages. It would just reduce the value of homes and shift part of housing payments from mortgages to LVT.

It would screw everyone who already has a mortgage, though. You'd have to phase it in slowly.

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snovv_crash 10 minutes ago
LVT can be deferred to the time of sale.
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lkirkwood 37 minutes ago
Is capital gains / wealth tax a fix here though? Definitely not saying it doesn't work, I have no idea. But I'd be curious to hear both sides of the argument.
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sandworm101 37 minutes ago
Or you tax it. Or, more correctly, you remove the current protections that allow land to appreciate tax-free for decades. That would move capital out of land and free it for other uses. The current system was designed to put money/people into houses post WWII but has gone too far in promoting radical multi-generational wealth structures.

We already assess property each year for purposes of local property taxes. Treating a 10% rise in value as taxable income each year would shake up the real estate market. Speculative gentrification would certainly stop. And those sitting on empty houses would either sell or try to find renters.

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skrebbel 23 minutes ago
Soo was it more or less than that? Don’t leave us hanging like that!
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seibelj 55 minutes ago
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ElProlactin 2 hours ago
> ...or does not earn a living wage, conservatively pegged at $26,000 (in 2025 dollars) annually before taxes.

I couldn't easily tell how they decided on a $26,000 "living wage" figure but in most of the US, even double that is not Easy Street.

The "True Rate of Barely Getting By" is ridiculously high in the US from what I can gather.

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BLKNSLVR 46 minutes ago
Might need to change the labelling from 'living' wage to 'surviving' wage.
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bpodgursky 31 minutes ago
This number is before transfers, you really cannot just look at the raw income. A family of 2 adult 2 kid making $22,500 in raw income makes more like $48,700 after refundable tax credits, SNAP, housing, etc [1].

https://www.google.com/search?q=average+us+income+including+...

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ElProlactin 25 minutes ago
Take a step back.

A family of 4 with $22,500 in income is well below the poverty line in the US, which is ~$33,000/year.

But do you think a family of 2 adults and 2 children with a "feels like" income of $50,000 is still not scraping by in the US? That's basic survival at best.

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nostrebored 16 minutes ago
As someone who grew up below the poverty line for much of my life — 2x the poverty line seemed like wealth to me. There are absolutely people getting by on “feels like” 50k a year.

There are not really frills, but in terms of “have shelter and food” it can work. Not everywhere is SF.

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annzabelle 21 minutes ago
I have to wonder how much of this is "would like a full time job but has a part time job paying over 26k." Because of mandatory benefits (such as health insurance) for full time workers, a lot of companies only hire part time workers, but often people are making a living wage from those jobs. I'm not sure if a bartender making $50k+ (including untaxed tips) working 32.5 hours a week should count as unemployed.
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RachelF 58 minutes ago
Similar statistics for Australia: https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/10192-australian-unemploy...

It all depends on the definition of "Unemployment". Most governments do not count you as unemployed if you've stopped looking for work, been unemployed for over 6 months, or if you made $25 as an Uber driver for 1 hour's work that month.

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marcus_holmes 27 minutes ago
Thanks, this is interesting.

Folks I've been talking to see a huge hit coming for us. Mining is getting automated (and coal/gas have huge problems). Education is getting hit by AI. Agriculture is good but employs relatively few people. Property is and always has been a zero-sum game that soaks up capital but doesn't return anything. Construction is getting pulled into building data centres for US hyperscalers.

We don't seem to be able to differentiate our economy away from resources at all - every attempt to do this (Turnbull's Ideas Boom being the classic) has failed.

It's looking pretty bleak for the Lucky Country.

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defrost 22 minutes ago
> We don't seem to be able to differentiate our economy away from resources at all

Or, equally importantly, control the means of production better than we've been doing to date - for a number of mineral resources and a great deal of energy we seem content with being tossed scraps in exchange for granting access for others to extract and sell on elsewhere.

> looking pretty bleak for the Lucky Country.

Pretty much as Donald Horne wrote when he popularised the saying for his book title.

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rio517 31 minutes ago
While I struggle to see the value here, I dont trust the official numbers and applaud their efforts to come up with alternatives.

However, I fear they conflate "living wage" with desire for full time work in this metric. It also seem to so closely track the official unemployment rate as to not be useful.

Also, as others states, 26k is a surprisingly low number to be called a living wage. I think that number also varies depending on household make up, but I can see why they skipped that complexity.

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j16sdiz 41 minutes ago
Looking at the "True Rate" vs "Headline Rate" graph.... The "Headline Rate" seems to be a good proxy for the "True Rate".

As long as we are not comparing them in the absolute term, what's the problem?

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riffraff 36 minutes ago
an unemployment rate of about 3-4% is considered "full employment" aka "we're good".

If you switch the perspective to this other rates it shows there's a lot of work to do to reach "true full employment".

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wxw 60 minutes ago
> the True Rate of Unemployment tracks the percentage of the U.S. labor force that does not have a full-time job (35+ hours a week) but wants one, has no job, or does not earn a living wage, conservatively pegged at $26,000 (in 2025 dollars) annually before taxes

Seems like reasonable criteria. "Regular" unemployment is

# unemployed/# employed

where unemployed is they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior four weeks, and are currently available to work. But not much criteria in terms of what work people are finding.

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zkmon 50 minutes ago
> the percentage of the U.S. labor force that does not have a full-time job ...

What is the "U.S. labor force" defined as? Is it a age group thing?

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hirako2000 42 minutes ago
It is typically who is able to be part of the labour force.

remove the elderly, those for who it would be illegal to work or still engaged in formal education, the so significantly handicapped no work is manageable.

So it is an age group, with caveats.

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skybrian 2 hours ago
I see some odd effects. I wonder how these would be explained?

According to the headline rate, unemployment was about the same in 1995. According to this alternative measure of unemployment, it's gone down by around 8% overall.

When split by race, it's gone down the most for Hispanics.

By education, it's gone down the most for people who didn't complete High School.

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xeromal 2 hours ago
Just a guess but gig work might be picking up some of that slack?
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SpicyLemonZest 2 hours ago
State level minimum wages were much less common in 1995, so it was easier for workers to be below their poverty threshold. Even though the federal wage got stuck, in many states today, the minimum wage is high enough that it's not possible for a full time worker to make less than $26,000 in a year.
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SpicyLemonZest 2 hours ago
This definition sounds like U-6 unemployment (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE) with an additional term for people making below a living wage. That's better constructed than most of these "real stats" I see, so I hate to be too critical. But they don't really engage with the important question of whether this metric is sufficiently robust for policymakers to use. Just eyeballing it, it seems to be quite a bit more volatile than the headline rate; if the Fed tried to target it, for example, would they end up doing a bunch of unnecessary rate cuts to stave off unemployment spikes that aren't real?
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mc32 2 hours ago
I don't see the revelation, it still appears we're near historical lows and it's not spiking. It's not like there is any divergence between before and now. It's not bad to know what this rate is but it's also not revealing a lie. If you apply their stat methodologies to other G-7, you get similar results.
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hirako2000 39 minutes ago
The revelation is that the official unemployment rate is so skewed it is meaningless, even misleading since high unemployment is a serious social issue thus should be a high priority political concern.
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reddozen 20 minutes ago
There is no revelation. The authors are intentionally misleading you by comparing 2 different metrics to pretend their formula is meaningfully different than what BLS provides.

"Headline" unemployment rate is U-3 unemployment. If they compared "TRU" to it's analogous match U-6 the graph would be less striking as it's a 1:1 match.

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gehwartzen 2 hours ago
Just because the economic system we have has always been shitty for a high percentage of our neighbors doesn’t mean it always has to be that way. Other top economic countries being similar doesn’t excuse it.
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Jblx2 2 hours ago
If you do this with PPP with every other country on earth, which ones look the best?
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Helloworldboy 2 hours ago
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luxshan_t 12 minutes ago
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